据道琼斯10月12日消息,高盛公司表示,虽然当前主要产油国减产的可能性高于之前,但依然很低,甚至最好的结果也不过是短暂提振油价而已,最终将证明是自掘坟墓。沙特阿拉伯的参与至关重要,但该国领导人或许很快意识到减产并不符合其利益。高盛称,欧佩克内的其他竞争对手或将避开减产,而且明年大量的新增石油供应将投产,这些都将损及沙特的利益。即使减产成功,油价走高也将导致美国和其他地方钻取更多的油井,再加上需求增速放缓,油价的涨势将难以为继。高盛表示,如果欧佩克未能在下月的维也纳会议上达成协议,油价可能降至43美元/桶。
张春晓摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Goldman Is Skeptical of Oil-Producer Cutback
A cutback from major oil producers is more likely than it has been, but chances "remain low" and even the best result is only a short-lived recovery likely to prove self-defeating, Goldman Sachs says. Saudi Arabia's participation is essential, but leaders there may soon realize it isn't in their interest. Other rivals in OPEC are likely to skirt cutbacks, and new sources of oil coming next year are so large they will undermine any benefits for Saudi Arabia, Goldman says. Even success and higher prices would cause more drilling in the US and elsewhere, and slower demand growth, causing the rally to collapse. The bank says prices could fall to $43 if OPEC fails to finalize a deal when it meets in Vienna next month.