石油专家预测油价在5年内或将重返每桶100美元

据美国彭博新闻社7月20日伦敦报道，曾预测去年油价将暴跌的石油专家、美国PIRA能源集团首席执行官加里·罗斯20日在伦敦表示，由于不断减少的供应无法满足需求，每桶100美元的原油很有可能在今后的5年里回归。

PIRA能源集团创始人罗斯说，石油市场并没有像许多人认为那样供过于求，由于沙特阿拉伯在没有新钻井的情况下生产了所有该国能够生产的石油，备用产能已经大大缩减。

罗斯在采访中说，目前的油价是不可持续的。不难看到油价在今后5年里的某个时候将达到每桶100美元。

去年在油价暴跌一半前转向看跌石油的罗斯的预测与其他分析师和投资者的看法截然不同。英国石油公司首席执行官鲍勃·达德利曾认为油价将较长时间处于低位。沙特阿拉伯石油大臣纳伊米去年12月说世界可能不会再看到100美元的油价，而国际能源署则形容市场已“大规模供过于求。”

罗斯说，由于生产商削减支出，他们的看法都没有考虑到50美元的油价对北美以外石油产量的影响。另外，欧佩克供应进一步中断的可能性以及便宜燃料消费量的增加也将支持油价。

李峻 编译

原文如下：

Oil guru who called 2014 slump sees return to $100 crude by 2020

7/20/2015

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- The oil guru who predicted last year’s rout said $100/bbl crude is likely to return within five years as faltering supply fails to meet demand.

Gary Ross, the founder of consultants PIRA Energy Group, said oil markets aren’t nearly as oversupplied as many believe and spare capacity is tight since Saudi Arabia is pumping all the crude it can without new drilling.

“Current prices are unsustainable,” he said Monday in an interview in London. “It’s hard not to see oil hitting $100/bbl at some point in the next five years.”

The forecast from Ross, who last year turned bearish on oil before prices shrank by half, is at odds with other analysts and investors bracing for “lower for longer” prices, a term coined by BP Plc CEO Bob Dudley. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi said in December the world may not see $100 crude again, while the International Energy Agency has described the markets as “massively oversupplied.”

Such views fail to take into account the impact of $50 oil on output outside North America as producers reduce spending, according to Ross. The likelihood of further disruption to OPEC supplies and the boost to consumption from cheap fuel also support prices, he said.