据道琼斯7月14日消息,法国外贸银行再次下调了油价预测,主要是因为当前全球石油市场产量过剩严重,而需求不能跟上供应的增长。该行称,沙特石油产量创下新高,而伊拉克当前的石油产量超过了400万桶/天,主要是因为巴士拉重质原油出口增加。法国外贸银行当前预测三季度布伦特油价为60美元/桶,四季度为59美元/桶,明年一季度为57美元/桶。该行预测2015年布伦特原油平均价格为59.2美元/桶,2016年为62.3美元/桶,而此前的预测数据分别为61.7美元/桶和65.5美元/桶。法国外贸银行表示,WTI原油与布伦特原油之间的价差为4美元-6美元/桶,预计明年一季度的价差将最大。
庞晓华摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Natixis Lowers Crude Oil Forecasts Again
Natixis lowers its forecasts for oil prices once again, citing the hefty production surplus in global oil markets and demand that cannot keep pace. Points to Saudi Arabia producing record volumes of crude and Iraq producing more than 4 million b/d, helped by increased exports of Basrah Heavy crude. Natixis now sees Brent at $60/bbl in the third quarter, $59/bbl in the fourth quarter and $57/bbl in the first quarter of 2016. It expects the average for 2015 and 2016 will be $59.2/bbl and $62.3/bbl respectively, down from $61.70/bbl in 2015 and $65.50/bbl previously. Sees WTI at a discount of between $4 and $6 a barrel to Brent, with spreads being the widest in the first quarter of next year.