未来十年电动汽车不会对美国汽油需求造成威胁

据道琼斯7月14日消息，Tudor Pickering Holt称，电动汽车数量的增长至少在未来十年内不会对美国汽油需求造成威胁。Tudor Pickering表示，驾车里程数和内燃机汽车效率的提高对汽油需求的影响远比电动汽车数量增加的影响要大。据Tudor Pickering的预测模型，如果2027年前驾车里程数每年增加1.5%，非电动车的效率每年提高不到1%，以及电动汽车的销售量提高至200万辆/年的情况下，美国汽油需求将增加约6%。

唐绍红 摘译自 道琼斯

原文如下：

EV's No Threat to US Gasoline Demand in Coming Decade

The rising use of electric vehicles won't pose a threat to US gasoline demand for at least a decade, according to Tudor Pickering Holt. The number of miles driven and increasing efficiency of internal combustion cars are far more influential on demand, Tudor Pickering says. If vehicle miles traveled grows by 1.5% a year, efficiency of the non-electric fleet grows at less than 1% and electric vehicle sales grow to 2Ma a year by 2027, gasoline demand would increase by about 6%, according to Tudor Pickering's model.