中国石化新闻网讯 惠誉国际评级公司在一份报告中称,2017年印度油气行业将受益于成品油消费的强劲增长,但是石油勘探和开采领域的赢利能力仍将维持疲软。
惠誉国际评级公司表示:“我们预计2017年印度成品油消费增加约5%-6%,同时印度炼油厂总体的炼油毛利率将缩窄,但仍然将高于历史平均水平。再加上较高的加工量水平,或将支撑2017年印度炼油厂强劲的操作现金流水平。”
印度国有石油销售公司印度石油公司(IOC)、巴拉特石油公司(BPCL)和印度斯坦石油公司(HPCL)已经宣布投入大量资金用于提高炼油能力和炼油的复杂程度,以满足新的燃料标准。
惠誉国际评级公司表示,根据我们对于2017年平均油价45美元/桶的预测,印度油气上游行业尤其是天然气的赢利能力将保持疲软。不过,在这个价格水平下,印度所需的燃料补贴也将维持低位,这对于国有石油公司来说是正面的影响。
张春晓摘译自惠誉国际评级公司网站2016-11-30
原文如下:
Fitch: India's Fuel Demand to Benefit Refiners
India's oil & gas industry will benefit from the strong consumption growth in petroleum products in 2017, while profitability in the oil exploration and production segment will remain weak, Fitch Ratings says in a report.
We expect product consumption to expand around 5%-6% in 2017. Fitch also expects gross refining margins (GRM) of all Indian oil refiners to narrow in 2017, while remaining stronger than the historical levels prior to FY16. This, together with higher volumes, is likely to support strong operating cash flows in 2017.
The state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) - Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC, BBB-/Stable), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL, BBB-/Stable) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL, BBB-/Stable) - have announced large investments to improve capacity and refining complexity to meet new fuel standards.
Upstream economics - oil and especially gas - will be weak under our oil-price assumption of USD45 per barrel in 2017. However, at this price level, India's fuel subsidy requirement will also remain low, which is positive for the state-owned oil companies.