据Trend通讯社9月6日巴库报道,美国摩根大通银行分析师认为,产油国一致达成限产决议的机会微乎其微。
欧佩克非正式会议预计将在9月下旬召开于阿尔及利亚。据测关于石油冻产的谈判将在欧佩克与非欧佩克成员国间召开。
会议将在9月26日-28日的阿尔及尔国际能源论坛间隙举行。该论坛将有来自73个国家的部长、CEO以及诸如欧佩克与EIA等的国际组织参加。
摩根大通分析师认为,任何协议的达成都离不开伊朗、俄罗斯以及海湾合作委员会(GCC)成员国参与。
分析师们在本周石油市场报告中表示:“俄罗斯政府(包括能源部长与总统)已评论称不对协议予以支持,使得协议前景在目前看来显得黯淡,而随后伊朗又被指出将不被包括在协议范围之内。”
摩根大通分析师们认为协议内容中的这类让步不太可能被其他关键的产油国接收,尤其是沙特阿拉伯。
尽管产量协议在理论上仍有可取之处,但分析师们评估,任何协议的达成都应包括所有欧佩克国家在内,除利比亚与尼日利亚外,此二国因各类国内安全问题,目前产能远低于应有水平。
分析师认为:“尽管大多数产油国都能够(至少站在己方立场)提出一些不加入限产协议的豁免或例外的理由,但我们认为只有利比亚与尼日利亚切实能够被排除在外。”
詹乐乾 摘译自Trend,2016.09.08
原文如下:
Chances of oil output freeze deal is negligible
The chances that oil producers will agree to cap oil production are negligible, analysts of the US JP Morgan bank believe.
The informal OPEC meeting is expected in late September in Algeria. It is expected that the talks on oil production freeze will be held between OPEC and non-OPEC countries.
The meeting will be held at the fringe of the International Energy Forum in Algiers from 26-28 September. The forum will bring together ministers, CEOs, international organizations like OPEC and the IEA, experts from 73 countries.
JP Morgan analysts believe that any agreement would require the participation of Iran and Russia, as well as GCC members.
“However, the prospects for a deal appear to have receded in recent days as comments by Russia’s government (including the Energy Minister and President) that it would not support a deal, have subsequently been changed to indicate that a deal would need a carve out exemption for Iran,” analysts said in the weekly Oil Market report.
JP Morgan analysts see such a concession being included in a deal as unlikely to be agreed to by other key exporters, notably Saudi Arabia.
While the rationale for a producer deal is still enticing, analysts expect that any agreement would need to involve all OPEC producers, with the exception Libya and Nigeria, both of whom are well below nameplate capacity due to a variety of domestic security issues.
“While most producers can justify (at least to themselves) some exemption or exception for why they should not be bound by any agreement to limit output, we think only Libya and Nigeria can realistically be excluded,” analysts said.