中国石化新闻网讯 据英国《卫报》7月13日消息,美国能源信息署EIA预测美国石油及其他液体 燃料产量将从2015年的1480万桶/天提升至2040年的1860万桶/天。
鉴于预测本身带有的不确定性,EIA根据对国际油价、宏观经济增长、资源可用性、技术进步与其他因素的不同假设准备了几套选择性方案。
该机构表示,致密地层(致密油)与天然气工厂液体燃料价格差异对不同方案中的产量影响最大。
EIA周一在一份声明中表示,油价方案反映了全球油价涨跌对美国产量与石油使用情况的作用效果。
它指出,到2030年,布伦特原油现货价格在低油价方案中平均达到49美元/桶,在参考方案中为104美元/桶,在高油价方案中为207美元/桶。
“高油价方案中,更高的能源效率、储量与燃料转换率拉低了预测消费量。反之在低油价方案中亦然,需求将因低油价而增长。高油价方案中的美国将在2022年成为石油与其他液体燃料的净进口国。
“不同的资源和技术水平,将使美国阿拉斯加与本土海上页岩气、致密地层天然气以及致密油井的未探明资源最终采收率比参考方案水平高出50%或低于50%;美国降本增产的技术进步速率也同样比参考方案水平高出50%或低于50%。在油气资源与技术水平较高的方案中,美国将在2024年成为石油与其他液体燃料的净进口国。
“参考方案中,自2017年开始,较低的油价对致密原油产量产生了最显著的影响,从2017年的420万桶/天增至2040年的710万桶/天。致密原油产量提升很大程度上归因于较高的油价与不间断的勘探开发项目,后两者提升了作业者对采收油藏的处理水平。在所有原油和液体燃料类型中,致密原油产量在高低油价方案中变动最大。
“2040年致密原油产量在低资源/技术水平方案中为312万桶/天,而在高资源/技术水平方案中为1290万桶/天。”
詹乐乾 摘译自The Guardian,2016.07.13
原文如下:
U.S. oil production to hit 18.6 million bpd in 2040
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that the U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels production would grow from 14.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2015 to 18.6 million bpd in 2040.
Given the uncertainty inherent in making projections, EIA also includes several alternative cases, based on different assumptions for world oil prices, macroeconomic growth, resource availability, technology improvement, and other factors.
According to the agency, differences in crude oil from tight formations (tight oil) and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) account for most of the differences in production across these cases.
EIA said in a statement on Monday, that the oil price cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude oil prices on U.S. production and use of petroleum.
It disclosed that by 2030, the Brent crude oil spot price averages $49 per barrel in the low oil price case, $104 per barrel in the reference case, and $207 a barrel in the high oil price case.
“In the high oil price case, increased energy efficiency, conservation, and fuel switching reduce projected consumption. The converse is true in the Low Oil Price case, where demand increases in response to low prices. In the High Oil Price case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2022.
“In the resource and technology cases, the estimated ultimate recovery for shale gas, tight gas, and tight oil wells in the United States, undiscovered resources in Alaska, and the offshore Lower 48 states are 50 per cent higher or 50 per cent lower than in the Reference case. Rates of technological improvement that reduce costs and increase productivity in the United States are also 50 per cent higher or 50 per cent lower than in the Reference case. In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2024.
“In the Reference case, relatively low prices through 2017 have the greatest effect on tight oil production, which drops to 4.2 million b/d in 2017 before increasing to 7.1 million bpd in 2040. The increase in tight oil production is largely attributed to higher oil prices and the ongoing exploration and development programs that expand operator knowledge about producing reservoirs. Of all the crude oil and liquids types, tight oil changes the most across cases: in the High and Low.
“Resource/Technology cases, tight oil production in 2040 ranges from 3.12 million b/d in the Low Resource/Technology case to 12.9 million b/d in the High Resource/Technology case”.