供应过剩将终结近来亚洲LNG价格大幅上涨局面

中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯7月12日消息，BMI研究公司表示，近来亚洲液化天然气（LNG）价格的大幅上涨没有可持续性，预计今年晚些时候产量超过需求。受澳大利亚、美国和安哥拉供应短期中断的影响，BMI研究公司将未来3-6个月亚洲基准的LNG现货价格预期从先前的4.5美元/百万英热单位上调至4.65美元/百万英热单位。然而到了秋季，随着来自于上述国家以及来自于马来西亚和印度尼西亚LNG项目的供应大幅增加，亚洲LNG现货价格将面临压力。BMI研究公司表示：“我们预测2017年和2018年LNG价格将逐年下跌，年平均价格的底部为3.8美元/百万英热单位。价格下跌主要将受到供应增加的影响，2016-2020年期间全球LNG产量预计增加约50%。”

庞晓华摘译自道琼斯

原文如下：

Asia LNG Prices Rally Set to Fizzle Due to Oversupply: BMI

[Dow Jones] BMI Research says the recent rally in Asian LNG prices is not sustainable and output is expected to outrun demand later this year. Looking forward by three to six months, the forecast for the Asia spot LNG benchmark, is raised to $4.65 per million British thermal units from the previous $4.50/mmBTU, underpinned by the short term supply disruptions in Australia, U.S., and Angola. However, prices will be under pressure in the fall season on a surge of supply, coming from the aforementioned countries as well as from LNG projects in Malaysia and Indonesia. "We forecast on-year declines in 2017 and 2018, bottoming out at US$3.80/mmBTU on an annual average basis. The decline will be driven on the supply side, with a around 50% increase in global output forecast for the period 2016 to 2020," the firm says.