高盛：2017年初将重现石油供应过剩局面

据道琼斯6月16日消息，高盛集团认为油价近期涨势是脆弱的。该行表示，因森林火灾受到影响的加拿大石油生产正在恢复，其他主要出口国也继续生产高于预期的石油产量，而油价接近每桶50美元或使减产幅度不及预期，尤其是美国的减产幅度。高盛指出，加拿大森林大火和非洲冲突已经关闭了石油生产和管道，但市场可能需要更多的中断事件，譬如尼日利亚或委内瑞拉生产中断，才能使油价在未来三个月里大幅升破每桶49美元。

庞晓华摘译自道琼斯

原文如下：

Goldman: Oil Surplus to Return in Early 2017

Goldman Sachs calls oil's rally "fragile." Production from fire-ravaged Canada is restarting, other major exporters keep producing more than expected and prices near $50 make it likely that production cuts will fall short of expectations, especially in the US, the bank says. Fires in Canada and strife in Africa have shut down production and pipelines, but the market will likely need more disruptions, maybe in Nigeria or Venezuela, to move US prices sustainably above $49 in the next three months, Goldman says. "Outside of these disruptions, the rationalization of the oil market's surplus remains nascent at best," Goldman says.