据道琼斯5月26日消息,凯投宏观认为50美元/桶的油价对于全球经济来说不算太低,也不算太高。凯投宏观首席经济学家Julian Jessop在一份研究报告中写道:“油价在50-60美元之间已足够缓解石油生产商的部分压力,同时也足够低到可以提振其他商品和服务的消费。”Jessop表示,50美元/桶的油价的积极影响不会平均分布,可能会伤害欧元区和日本的经济复苏。凯投宏观维持年底油价在45美元的预期不变,并称从现在起的油市走势可能会出现动荡,因部分供给中断的情况将得到缓解,而美国钻探活动会随着油价上涨而反弹。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
$50 Oil Is Right Price for Global Economy
Capital Economics sees $50 oil as not too low and not too high for the global economy. "Prices in the $50 to $60 range would be high enough to ease some of the pressure on producers, while still low enough to boost spending on other goods and services," says Julian Jessop, the firm's chief global economist, in a note. But the positive effect is unevenly spread and could hurt the economic recoveries in the eurozone and Japan, he says. The firm maintains its year-end price forecast of $45, saying "the path from here is likely to be bumpy ... as some of the supply disruptions ease or as US drilling activity rebounds in response to higher prices."