据道琼斯6月26日消息,巴克莱称,国际原油市场看起来走势平稳,但未来仍面临诸多风险。巴克莱称,伊朗原油回归可能导致错配、美国页岩油产量下降、中国库存建设、驾车出行季节结束以及炼油业回暖,可能给油价带来下行压力。原油消费依然强劲,到年底,日消费量可能达到9,500万桶,但折合成年均增长速度的需求增速料将放缓。另一方面,受原油供应反弹影响,年底前原油库存应该会继续上升,油价在今年余下时间里面临下行压力。巴克莱预计第三季度布伦特原油平均价格为每桶61美元。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Oil Faces Hurdles on Road to Recovery
The oil market appears to be on cruise control but the road remains rife with hazards, says Barclays. A possible misalignment of Iran's return, U.S. shale's decline, Chinese stockbuilding, the end of the driving season and refining turnarounds might lead to downward price pressure, the bank says. Consumption is strong and might reach as high as 95 million barrels a day by year-end, but growth on an annual basis is forecast to slow. On the other hand, prices face downward pressure for the remainder of the year on resilient oil supplies as stocks should continue to build through year-end. Barclays expects Brent to average $61 a barrel in 3Q.