据道琼斯4月24日消息,伊朗与西方国家近来在核谈判中取得的进展意味着大量伊朗原油极有可能重返市场。但凯投宏观在一份报告中称,即便6月底签署伊朗核协议,几个月后取消制裁,随后出现的伊朗原油流入全球市场以及油价走低也不太可能引发沙特和其他欧佩克成员国减产。凯投宏观称:“伊朗石油重返市场实际上可能强化欧佩克不减产的立场,给美国页岩油生产商带来更大的压力,特别是,欧佩克的政策已经开始显示出效果的迹象。”目前伊朗石油日产量降至约250万桶,2008年日产量约为400万桶。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Return of Iranian Oil Unlikely to Budge OPEC
[Dow Jones] The recent progress in nuclear talks between Iran and the West means it is now very likely that substantial volumes of oil from Iran will return to the market. But even if the deal is signed at the end of June and sanctions are lifted several months later, a subsequent flow of Iranian oil to the global market and a crude price fall are unlikely to prompt Saudi Arabia and other OPEC member countries to cut output, says Capital Economics in a note. "The return of Iranian exports may actually reinforce OPEC's no output cuts stance, putting even more pressure on U.S. shale producers, especially since the policy is showing signs of working," it says. Iranian oil output has fallen to around 2.5 million barrels a day now compared with about 4 million b/d in 2008.