欧佩克在与全球原油需求玩轮盘赌

中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯2月10日消息，据北欧斯安银行市场公司首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop称，自去年年初以来一直减产接近180万桶/日的欧佩克正在与全球石油需求增长玩俄罗斯轮盘赌。Schieldrop表示，如果石油需求加快增长，增速超过2%，那么欧佩克的减产计划将获得回报，但如果需求增速较弱，那么到2018年底欧佩克将陷入困境，届时欧佩克在全球石油市场的份额将下降。他在一份研究报告中称：“届时欧佩克的市场份额将萎缩，然后该组织需要进一步大幅削减产量才能继续管理油价。”

张春晓 摘译自 道琼斯

原文如下：

OPEC Playing Russian Roulette with Global Demand

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has been holding back crude output by nearly 1.8 million barrels a day since the start of last year, is "playing Russian roulette" with global demand growth, according to Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets. If demand growth accelerates strongly, above 2%, then OPEC's plan will have paid off, but if growth is on the weak side then the oil cartel will be in a tight spot by the end of 2018, with less global market share, argues Mr. Schieldrop. "Then its cake is shrinking. Then it needs to cut yet deeper in order to keep managing oil prices," Mr. Schieldrop says in a note.