中国石化新闻网讯 据《财富》杂志2月3日消息,关于电动车搅动能源行业格局的传言或许很快就会变为现实,受其影响的石油市场供应规模将达到百万桶量级。
彭博社报道,“碳追踪”智库与伦敦大学帝国理工学院主导的一项研究显示,到2025年每天将减少原油需求200万桶。报道还称,从更长期分析,被取代的原油需求在2050年将增加至2500万桶/天。
彭博社称,这一切将随着电动车市场的稳步增长而实现。电动车制造商持之以恒获得技术进步,不断降低成本,对全球燃料车市场的取代比例一直保持增长。
彭博社称,研究者们表示所有电动车到的使用成本到2020年即有望与传统的化石燃料车持平,最终到2050年在代步车市场占有率上达到饱和。
彭博社还补充称,从2014年开始,每天200万桶原油的过量供应至今仍使石油产业发展缓慢,在未来一代人的时间内还将见证规模最大的衰退。
詹乐乾 摘译自《财富》,2017.02.03
原文如下:
Electric Cars Could Totally Disrupt the Oil Market Within a Decade, Researchers Say
The buzz around electric cars changing the energy industry's landscape could soon be moving from hype to reality, disrupting the oil market to the tune of millions in supply.
Research by the think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative and Imperical College London suggests that demand for as much as two million barrels a day of crude oil could vanish by 2025, reports Bloomberg. In the longer run, the quantity of crude oil no longer in demand could rise to 25 million by 2050, the report suggests.
This comes as the electric car market grows steadily, reports Bloomberg. EV makers have continued to make technological improvements and drive down costs, and uptake rates globally have been on the rise.
According to Bloomberg, the researchers are suggesting that all-electric cars are likely to no longer cost more than conventional fossil fuel-burning cars by 2020—and eventually would saturate the market for passenger cars by 2050.
Bloomberg adds that a glut of two million barrels a day has been causing the sluggish pace of the oil industry since 2014, bringing about the greatest downturn in a generation.