中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯11月29日消息,尽管在商业库存仍然高企之际石油市场供需继续保持平衡,惠誉国际预计2017年油价可能没有明确走向,但是该机构同时也承认,未来的油价走向具有极大的不确定性。那是因为前所未有的资本支出削减可能会导致产量大幅减少,降幅可能会超过预期,而与此同时,如果经济增长势头令人失望,石油需求增速可能放缓,或者随着价格上涨美国的页岩油产量开始回归,供应可能高于预期。惠誉国际对布伦特和西得克萨斯州中质(WTI)原油期货2017年的平均预期为每桶45美元,2018年的预期仍为55美元,2019年的平均预期为60美元。惠誉还称,就算欧佩克周三决定减产,该决定能否持续给油价带来影响还不得而知。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Fitch Sees Flat 2017 Oil Prices
While predicting that oil prices are liable to go no where in 2017 as supply and demand continue to balance themselves at a time of "still-high commercial inventories," Fitch also admits "there is significant uncertainty about the future [price] path." That's because "unprecedented capex cuts could translate into a far-sharper fall in output than the consensus expectation while there is also potential for demand growth to slow if economic growth disappoints or for supply to be higher than expected if US shale comes back strongly as prices rise." Fitch's 2017 call remains Brent and WTI futures averaging $45/barrel while 2018 is still at $55 while rolling out a 2019 call of a $60 average. It adds even if OPEC cuts Wednesday, "its ability to have a lasting impact on prices is unclear."