据美国彭博新闻社10月21日华盛顿报道,世界银行周四(20日)在其最新一期大宗商品市场前景报告中表示,欧佩克通过控制产量来帮助提升油价的能力将受到页岩油生产商和其他非常规能源供应商提高产量的能力的考验。
原油价格自9月28日欧佩克在过去8年里首次同意限制产量以来迄今上涨的幅度超过了7%。欧佩克由14个成员国组成,从沙特阿拉伯到伊朗和尼日利亚。全球供应过剩造成了油价在过去两年里的暴跌。
世界银行在报告中说,非传统供应来源尤其是产自美国页岩油藏石油的增加将限制欧佩克控制油价的能力。页岩钻井商从比常规供应商更短的生产周期中受益,而页岩开发费用迄今已显著下降。
世界银行说,如果欧佩克和其他产油国成功抑制了产量并显著提升了油价,石油生产的投资以及非欧佩克的供应将有可能增加。这很可能考验欧佩克在中期内提升油价的能力。
李峻 编译
原文如下:
OPEC deal unlikely to lift oil prices for long, World Bank says
10/21/2016
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Bloomberg) -- OPEC’s power to help lift oil prices by curbing output will be tested by the ability of shale-oil producers and other unconventional suppliers to ramp up production, the World Bank said.
Crude prices have surged more than 7% since Sept. 28, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to limit production for the first time in eight years. The group includes 14 major oil producers, from Saudi Arabia to Iran and Nigeria. A global supply glut has caused oil prices to slump over the past two years.
But the rise of non-traditional sources of supply, in particular oil extracted from U.S. shale deposits, will constrain OPEC’s ability to control prices, the World Bank said Thursday in its latest commodities-market outlook. Shale drillers benefit from shorter production cycles than conventional suppliers, and shale development costs have fallen significantly, according to the Washington-based development lender.
“Should OPEC and other producers succeed in restraining production and lifting prices meaningfully, investment in oil production and non-OPEC supply would likely rise,” the World Bank said. “This is likely to test OPEC’s ability to lift oil prices in the medium term.”