标普全球评级认为油价2020年结束前不会突破55美元

据普氏能源资讯9月21日伦敦报道，标普全球评级日前把其对今年布伦特原油和WTI原油的价格设想上调到了每桶42.5美元，但是，标普全球评级说，该评级机构预计这两种原油的平均价格在2020年结束前将不会上涨到每桶55美元以上。

标普全球评级说，由于石油和石油产品高库存继续拖累期货石油价值，该机构预计全球石油市场在2017年继续供应过剩。

标普全球评级说，该机构认为油价在2017年将逐步攀升到平均47美元/桶并在2018年和2019年分别上升到50美元/桶和55美元/桶。

标普全球评级说，由于工程优化、钻井效率提高以及生产成本降低，尤其是在曾经高成本的美国页岩地层的生产成本降低，钻井费用在10年通货膨胀以后不断下降。钻井商引入了新的钻井方法以及水力压裂和完井技术导致了更持久的成本下降。

标普全球评级援引其对当前石油期货价格曲线的评估说，该机构把其对两种基准油价在今年剩余时间里的估计从每桶40美元上调了2.5美元。

李峻 编译

原文如下：

S&P sees oil prices recovering to just $55/b by 2019 as industry costs fall

London (Platts)--21 Sep 2016

S&P Global Ratings has revised upward its price assumptions for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil this year to $42.50/b but said it does not expect average prices to rise above $55/b before the end of the decade.

The ratings agency said it expects the global oil market to remain oversupplied "well into 2017" with high oil and product inventories continue to drag on spot oil values.

S&P said it sees prices climbing gradually to average $47/b next year before rising to $50/b in 2018 and $55/b in 2019.

"Declining costs come after a decade of inflation, thanks to engineering optimization, improved drilling efficiencies, and production cost reductions, especially in the once high-cost US shale formations," S&P said. "Drillers have introduced new drilling methods, fracking, and well-completion techniques that have resulted in more permanent cost reductions."

Citing its assessment of current oil futures price curves, S&P said it has raised its estimate for the two benchmark oil prices by $2.50/b from $40/b for the rest of 2016.