中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社7月26日纽约报道,由于第二季度石油供应中断和需求强劲,世界银行26日把其对今年原油价格的预测从每桶41美元上调到了43美元。
第二季度的石油供应中断,包括来自尼日利亚的武装分子袭击和加拿大的森林大火帮助了油价从年初达到的12年低点实现反弹。
然而,自从油价在6月初达到每桶大约51美元的峰值以来,精炼石油产品的日益过剩抑制了需求前景,而来自许多中断的复苏供应放慢了原油市场的再平衡。
世界银行说,其最新预测考虑了这些最近的发展。
世界银行高级经济学家和世界银行季度大宗商品市场前景报告作者约翰?巴菲斯说:“由于石油市场过剩减少,我们预计油价在今年下半年会略微升高。”
李峻 编译
原文如下:
World Bank Raises 2016 Oil Price Forecast on Supply Outages, Robust Demand
Reuters
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
NEW YORK
The World Bank raised its crude oil forecast for 2016 to $43 a barrel on Tuesday, from $41 a barrel, citing supply outages and robust demand in the second quarter.
Disruptions in oil supply during the second quarter, including from militant attacks in Nigeria and wildfires in Canada, helped oil prices rebound from 12-year lows hit early in the year.
However, since peaking at about $51 a barrel early in June, a growing overhang in refined products has damped the demand outlook and resurgent supply from many of the outages has slowed the rebalancing of the crude oil market.
The World Bank said its latest forecast takes these recent developments into account.
"We expect slightly higher oil prices for the second half of 2016 as oil market oversupply diminishes," John Baffes, senior economist and lead author of the World Bank's quarterly commodities markets outlook, said in a statement.