据道琼斯6月30日消息,渣打银行大宗商品研究主管Paul Horsnell称,即使伊朗核谈判达成协议,伊朗石油产量的潜在增长规模可能都会远远小于市场普遍预期。他表示:“渣打预计2015年伊朗石油产量日增幅不会超过15万桶,2016年的日产量进一步增幅可能不超过30万桶。”伊朗目前的可持续石油产能不超过每天320万桶,而应对老化油田产量下降和繁琐的解除制裁问题也将是一个相对漫长的过程。他表示,渣打认为,在伊朗石油产量恢复到2010年水平之前,将经历一个开局缓慢和循序渐进的过程。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Iran Oil Output Likely More Constrained Than Expected: StanChart
[Dow Jones] The potential increase in Iran's output following any deal is likely to be far more limited than consensus expects, Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, says. "We do not expect output to increase by more than 150,000 barrels/day in 2015, with a further 300,000 barrels/day possible in 2016," he says. Iran's sustainable oil production capacity is now no higher than 3.2 million barrels/day and it will be a relatively long process to tackle the decline from aging fields, and the cumbersome lifting of sanctions. "A slow start and a gradual process lie ahead, in our view, before Iran's output can return to 2010 levels," he says.