据道琼斯1月15日消息,欧佩克周四称,油价的下挫预计抑制今年非欧佩克产油国石油供应的增加,尽管需求有望小幅改善。
欧佩克在其最新月度石油市场报告中下调了非欧佩克国家今年石油供应增量的预期,凸显出油价走低已经影响到石油行业投资。欧佩克已经将今年美国的石油增量预期下调了10万桶/天。近年来美国石油产量已经大幅增加。
与此同时,欧佩克预计,受油价走低提振,今年全球石油需求将略有增长。
在全球经济增速放缓、石油需求低迷的环境下,美国石油产量大幅增长已经导致油价在过去六个月重挫,自去年6月以来的跌幅已经超过50%。去年11月欧佩克决定维护市场份额,而不是减产来支撑市场。
欧佩克一直在坚守其11月份的决定,即便成员国的主要出口价格已经大跌。12月欧佩克参考的一揽子石油价格已经跌至2009年5月以来的最低点。
据第二手消息来源称,尽管油价下跌,但欧佩克12月的原油产量增加至3,020万桶/天,这主要是受伊拉克原油产量大幅增加推动。这意味着欧佩克产量增长最快的成员国正在试图通过增加产量来弥补油价下跌带来的影响。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
DJ Falling Oil Prices to Reduce Supply From non-OPEC Members
By Sarah Kent
Slumping oil prices are expected to dampen the increase in non-OPEC oil supply this year, even as demand is expected to improve marginally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Thursday.
In its monthly oil market report, the producer group lowered its forecast for the increase in non-OPEC oil supply this year, highlighting the indications that lower prices are already affecting investment in the sector. In the U.S., where oil production has soared in recent years, the producer group has slashed 100,000 barrels a day from its forecast production increase this year.
Meanwhile, it sees slightly stronger demand this year, bolstered by the weaker price environment.
Oil prices have collapsed in the past six months, tumbling more than 50% since June amid soaring U.S. crude production at a time of slowing world economic growth and sluggish demand. The downturn was exacerbated in November when OPEC decided to maintain market share, rather than acting to curtail output and bolster the market.
The producer group has stuck doggedly to its November decision even as the price of member countries' main export crashed. The price of the OPEC reference basket slumped to its lowest value since May 2009 in December.
Despite the slump in prices, the group ratcheted up its production to 30.2 million barrels a day in December, largely driven by a substantial increase in Iraq's oil production, according to secondary sources. That suggests OPEC's fastest-rising oil producer is seeking to increase output to offset the steep decline in prices.