据俄罗斯News Oil & Gas Eurrasia网站10月24日报道,福布斯日前在一份研究报告中表示,美国页岩油和页岩气的复兴已有效地把俄罗斯从其作为世界最大的非欧佩克石油生产国的位置上剥离。
EIA日前也表示,俄罗斯在接下来的25年或更长的时间内将不会恢复这个位置。
福布斯说,美国2020年前的油气日产量将从2011年的980万桶增加到1420万桶,而俄罗斯在2020年前将平均内日产油气1070万桶。
福布斯认为,俄罗斯的石油产量从现在到2040年将年均增加0.6%,而美国的石油产量在此期间将年均增加大约1%。
美国能源信息署说,美国的油气产量将在2020年达到峰值,但其不可避免的下降仍将超过俄罗斯的产量。例如,2030年前,美国预计日均生产1320万桶石油,而俄罗斯将日均生产1120万桶石油。
新的水平钻井技术已帮助美国成为了美洲的沙特阿拉伯。但是,美国的石油繁荣将只能少量带走欧佩克的市场份额。欧佩克到2020年仍将控制40%的全球供应量,仅比今天下降大约1%。由于美国产量下降,欧佩克所占的市场份额将增加。
李峻 编译
原文如下:
Forbes: U.S. To Produce More Oil & Gas Than Russia.For Decades
October 24, 2014
News Oil & Gas Eurasia
The U.S. shale oil and gas renaissance has effectively stripped Russia from its status as biggest non-OPEC oil producing state, writes Forbes. And Russia won’t recover for the next 25 years. Or more, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency.
U.S. oil and gas production is seen going from 9.8 million barrels a day in 2011 to 14.2 million per day in 2020. By then, Russia will produce an average of 10.7 million barrels daily. And while Russia’s oil production will rise by an average of 0.6% year over year between now and 2040, U.S. oil production will be a little bit better, at around 1% growth per year. The EIA has American oil and gas production peaking in 2020, but its inevitable decline will still outpace Russian production. For instance, by 2030, the U.S. is expected to average 13.2 million barrels daily while Russia will be pumping out 11.2 million.
New horizontal drilling technologies have helped make the United States the Saudi Arabia of the Americas. But, the U.S. oil boom will only marginally take away OPEC’s market share.
OPEC will still command 40% of the global oil supply in 2020, down from around 41% today. That market share will rise as U.S. production declines.