中国石化新闻网讯 据6月3日CNBC报道，随着需求回升，油价可能会在今年夏天暂时飙升至每桶80美元甚至更高的水平。
重新开放的经济已经使原油价格自年初以来上涨了约40%，但美国出行人数的激增，以及货物运输和航空旅行的增加，可能会进一步支撑价格。
对消费者来说，这意味着初夏汽油价格的典型峰值可能会在夏季晚些时候出现。据美国汽车协会的数据，周三无铅汽油平均价格为每加仑3.04美元，比上周高出约1美分，但较去年高出50%以上。
国际原油基准布伦特原油期货价格周三收盘上涨1.6%，至每桶71.48美元，为2020年1月8日以来的最高水平。7月西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨1.6%，至每桶68.83美元，此前曾触及每桶69.65美元的高点，为2018年10月23日以来的最高水平。
美国银行(Bank of America)全球大宗商品和衍生品策略师弗朗西斯科?布兰奇(Francisco Blanch)表示:“需求增长非常快，因为所有人都在开车，而欧洲市场正在重新开放，此外，印度似乎已经达到了一个拐点，在我看来，这可能意味着人口流动性的恢复。”
价格上涨存在不确定性
能源分析人士一致认为，油价将有一段时间会走高，但油价会走多高、会走多久没有达成一致意见。布兰奇称，布兰特原油已经达到了每桶70美元的季度目标价，其长期预期较为乐观：“我们认为，在未来三年，油价可能会回升到每桶100美元，我们坚持这一点。不过，那将是一个2022年、2023年的故事。部分原因是欧佩克+掌握着所有的关键，而市场对供应方面的价格并不是特别敏感，还有很多被压抑的需求……此外还有通货膨胀。石油价格一直滞后于整个经济上涨水平。”
欧佩克+正逐渐将石油重新投入市场，同意在6月份将日产量增加35万桶，并从7月份开始再增加45万桶。沙特阿拉伯还同意放弃今年年初实施的每日约100万桶的额外减产计划。
今年4月，欧佩克+同意在7月底之前将日产量增加200多万桶。
美国石油工业目前的日产量约为1100万桶，低于疫情爆发前的约1300万桶。但分析人士指出，目前还不清楚美国公司恢复生产的速度有多快，也不清楚它们能否恢复生产。
布兰奇表示:“由于资本约束，生产商对价格变化的敏感性有所下降。、在去年价格暴跌之后，企业面临着需要谨慎使用资本的压力。目前油价上涨，企业不愿投资。他们正在偿还债务，增加股息。公司董事会也面临着剥离油气资产、到2050年实现净零排放的压力，这两股主要力量阻碍能源领域的资本支出。"
经济复苏，需求上升
就目前而言，随着全球经济的反弹，石油产量并没有跟上需求的增长。即使在欧佩克+周二承诺让原油重返市场后，油价仍在继续上涨。
IHS Markit副董事长丹尼尔·耶金(Daniel Yergin) 表示：“欢迎来到疫情后的世界，我们看到需求在迅速增长，每天增长700万桶。布伦特原油价格今年有望达到平均每桶70美元。油价有可能涨到80美元，虽然这是不可思议的，这将开始影响需求，而且还会引发政治反应。”
根据Again Capital的John Kilduff的说法，看涨的需求和价格预测支撑了本周原油价格的上涨。他说，欧佩克预计，到今年年底，需求可能达到每天9,980万桶，但供应预计将仅达到每天9,750万桶。
ReagainCapital约翰基尔达夫（JohnKilduff）表示，看涨的需求和价格预期支撑了本周原油价格的上涨。他说，欧佩克预测，到今年年底，石油需求可能达到9980万桶/天，但供应量预计仅为9750万桶/天。
基尔达夫表示：“我预期油价上涨已经有一段时间了，预计布伦特原油价格将触及每桶80美元，WTI原油价格将在每桶75美元至80美元之间交易。从长远来看，关键是美国页岩行业在多大程度上恢复活动并取得进展。”
花旗集团（Citigroup）分析师埃里克?李（Eric Lee）表示，他预计美国钻井公司最终将恢复到之前的产量水平，但他确实注意到公司策略有所改变。私营企业的反应会很快，人们都非常谨慎。
欧佩克+目前没有看到来自美国的威胁，它有足够的闲置产能来抑制油价上涨，并在必要时增加供应。此前，价格上涨使得美国页岩行业加大开采力度，进而推动价格下跌。
不过，目前并没有看到美国生产商强势回归，从这些公司当前的表现来看，它们更愿意抑制产量。
王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC
原文如下：
It could be a hot summer ahead for oil prices
Oil prices could temporarily spike to $80 per barrel or more this summer as demand comes roaring back.
The reopening economy has already sent crude up about 40% since the start of the year, but a surge in driving by Americans, as well as an increase in goods transportation and air travel, could pressure prices further.
For consumers, that means the typical early summer peak in gasoline prices could come later in the season. Unleaded gasoline was $3.04 per gallon on average Wednesday, about a penny higher than last week but more than 50% higher than a year ago, according to AAA.
Brent futures, the international crude benchmark, settled up 1.6% at $71.48 per barrel Wednesday, the highest since Jan. 8, 2020. West Texas Intermediate futures for July were 1.6% higher at $68.83 per barrel, after hitting a high of $69.65, the highest since Oct. 23, 2018.
“Demand is ramping up very quickly because everybody’s driving, and we have the reopening of Europe, which is really starting to happen,” said Francisco Blanch, global commodities and derivatives strategist at Bank of America. “India seems to have hit an inflection point, in terms of cases, which in my mind could mean you also get a return of mobility.”
Uncertainty around higher prices
Energy analysts agree the world is in for a period of higher prices, but they do not agree how high or for how long. Blanch said Brent has already hit his $70 target for the quarter, but he has a much more bullish longer-term view than others.
“We think in the next three years we could see $100 barrels again, and we stand by that. That would be a 2022, 2023 story,” Blanch said. “Part of it is the fact we have OPEC kind of holding all the cards, and the market is not particularly price responsive on the supply side and there is a lot of pent-up demand ... We also have a lot of inflation everywhere. Oil has been lagging the rise in prices across the economy.”
Members of OPEC and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, are gradually returning oil to the market. They agreed to implement their previously planned production increase of 350,000 barrels a day in June and another 450,000 barrels a day starting in July. Saudi Arabia also agreed to step back from its own cuts of about a million barrels a day, which was put in place earlier in the year.
OPEC+ had agreed in April to increase output by more than 2 million barrels a day by the end of July.
The U.S. industry is producing about 11 million barrels a day, down from about 13 million before the pandemic. But analysts say it’s not clear how fast or whether U.S. companies will restore that production.
“The sensitivity of producers to price changes has declined because of capital discipline,” said Blanch. He said there is pressure on companies to be cautious in how they use capital after the collapse in prices last year.
“Right now we’re in a position where prices are rising, companies are reluctant to invest,” Blanch said. “They are paying down debt and increasing dividends.”
He said there is also pressure on corporate boards to divest hydrocarbon assets and to work toward net zero on carbon emissions by 2050. “You have two major forces hampering capex in the energy sector right now,” Blanch said.
Rising demand amid the recovery
For now, oil production has not kept up with demand, as global economies rebound. Even after OPEC+ committed Tuesday to return crude to the market, the price of oil continued to tick up.
“Welcome to the post-pandemic world,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “We’re seeing demand is growing rapidly between the first quarter and the third quarter by 7 million barrels a day.”
Yergin said his Brent target is an average $70 per barrel this year.
Bullish demand and price forecasts have supported the gain in crude prices this week, according to John Kilduff of Again Capital. He said OPEC predicted that demand could reach 99.8 million barrels a day by the end of the year, but supply is expected to reach just 97.5 million barrels a day.
“I’ve been bullish for awhile now,” said Kilduff. He expects to see Brent hit $80 a barrel and WTI trade between $75 and $80. “The demand trends have been exploding ... The real throes of this I imagine will come as we get closer to Labor Day.”
Kilduff said the key to the longer-term view is how much the U.S. shale industry resumes its former activities and pushes ahead.
Citigroup analyst Eric Lee said he expects U.S. drillers to return to their prior levels of production ultimately, but he does note a change in attitude.
“If you split them up, the private companies have been responding quickly. The public independents and the majors have been a lot more cautious,” Lee said.
OPEC + does not currently see a threat from the U.S., and it has plenty of spare production capacity to curb higher prices and add supply if it needed to. Previously, higher prices would be an invitation for the U.S. shale industry to pump more, which could in turn drive prices down.
“They’re not seeing U.S. producers coming back very strongly at the moment, and I think they’re of the view that U.S. producers won’t come back strong,” he said. “In terms of how they’re behaving now, they’re not so worried about shale right now so they’re more willing to hold back production.”
