中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网12月25日报道，尽管多数行业分析师预计明年将是又一个艰难的年份，但北美液化天然气出口商对2021年新项目的前景更有信心，由于亚洲需求激增促使价格大幅上涨。
欧洲和亚洲的天然气期货已经攀升至一年多以来的最高水平，这是由于2020年底的需求急剧增加，尤其是在中国以外，那里的买家争相采购以确保供应。由于亚洲国家寻求取代污染更严重的燃煤电厂和日益增长的能源消耗，推动了液化天然气(LNG)的创纪录增长。
由于历史上疲软的价格和对供过于求的担忧，过去两年中有许多计划在北美开工的项目被推迟。 在今年全球一些最大的液化天然气生产国澳大利亚，马来西亚，挪威和卡塔尔的产量下降之后，这种担忧就消失了。
随着亚洲现货价格升至6年高点，液化天然气运营商对长期供应协议的兴趣越来越大，这将使开发商能够建造新的出口工厂。
能源传输公司（Energy Transfer LP）液化天然气总法律顾问兼总裁Tom Mason表示，价格上涨“已经转化为客户对液化天然气长期购买承诺的增长。”Energy Transfer LP正在路易斯安那州的查尔斯湖（Lake Charles）进口设施中开发一个出口工厂。
今年年初，十几家开发商表示，他们计划在今年年底前做出在美国、加拿大和墨西哥建设新项目的最终投资决定。
其中只有一家出口工厂取得了进展——Sempra能源公司在墨西哥的Costa Azul液化天然气进口设施上追加了20亿美元。其他所有提议都被推迟，因为没有足够的客户愿意签署长期协议，以在现货价格如此之低的情况下为数十亿美元的项目融资。
由于新冠疫情对需求的破坏，欧洲和亚洲的天然气期货在春季下跌至创纪录的低点，然后在最近几周反弹至一年多来的最高水平。
目前有14个北美项目在等待2021年的FID，其中大多数从2020年推迟下来，但分析师预计明年不会全部推进。
全球液化天然气需求在过去三年里每年增长约10%，到2019年达到历史最高水平，每年约3.55亿吨。 一些分析人士预计，到2025年，增长率将放缓至每年3%至4%，然后随着政府逐步淘汰化石燃料以满足净零碳排放政策而进一步下降。
然而，液化天然气开发商表示，最近的建设不足将导致未来几年液化天然气市场供应不足，尤其是在亚洲需求持续增长的情况下。
墨西哥太平洋有限公司首席执行官Doug Shanda表示，目前的预测没有考虑到日本、中国和韩国近期宣布将更多发电从煤炭转向天然气的决定。
墨西哥太平洋公司计划在2021年底或2022年初就是否在墨西哥太平洋海岸建设液化天然气出口工厂做出决定。
据分析师表示，在现有液化天然气终端上建造的“棕地”项目，如能源传输公司的查尔斯湖或Sempra的Costa Azul，比“绿地”项目有更好的发展机会。美国正在运营的六大液化天然气出口工厂中，有五个位于棕地。
欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)驻新加坡的能源、气候与资源主管亨宁?格洛斯坦(Henning Gloystein)表示，棕地项目往往涉及较少的资金，开发周期也更短。对于北美的大多数绿地项目来说，要在2021年获得FID确实很困难。
郝芬 译自 能源世界网
原文如下：
Gas price rally buoys North American LNG developers looking to 2021
North American LNG exporters are sounding more confident about the prospects for new projects in 2021 due to a sharp rally in prices driven by surging Asian demand, even as most industry analysts expect next year to be another difficult one.
Natural gas futures in Europe and Asia have climbed to their highest levels in more than a year due to a sharp increase in demand late in 2020, especially out of China, where buyers have scrambled to secure supply. Asian nations have driven record growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) as they seek to replace dirtier coal plants and fuel growing energy consumption.
Numerous projects slated for groundbreaking in North America were put off in the last two years due to historically weak prices and worries about oversupply. That concern has dissipated after production dropped this year in Australia, Malaysia, Norway and Qatar, some of the world's largest LNG producers.
With spot prices in Asia hitting a six-year high, LNG operators are seeing greater interest in long-term supply deals that would allow developers to build new export plants.
Tom Mason, general counsel and president of LNG at Energy Transfer LP, which is developing an export plant at its Lake Charles import facility in Louisiana, said the rise in prices "has translated into a pickup in traction with customers for long-term commitments for LNG purchases."
At the start of 2020, a dozen or so developers said they planned to make final investment decisions (FIDs) to build new projects in the United States, Canada and Mexico by the end of this year.
Only one of those export plants went forward - Sempra Energy's $2 billion addition to its Costa Azul LNG import facility in Mexico. All other proposals were delayed because not enough customers were willing to sign long-term deals to finance the multibillion-dollar projects with spot prices so low.
Gas futures in Europe and Asia collapsed to record lows in the spring due to coronavirus demand destruction before rebounding in recent weeks to their highest in over a year.
There are now 14 North American projects awaiting FID in 2021, most carried over from 2020, but analysts do not expect all to go forward next year.
Global LNG demand has risen by about 10% each year over the past three years to hit an all-time high of around 355 million tonnes per annum in 2019. Some analysts project that growth rate will slow to 3% to 4% a year through 2025 and then decline further as governments phase out fossil fuels to meet net-zero carbon emissions policies.
LNG developers, however, say that the recent dearth of construction will leave the LNG market undersupplied in coming years, especially as demand keeps rising in Asia.
"The current forecasts have not taken into account recent announcements out of Japan, China and South Korea that will shift more power generation from coal to gas," said Doug Shanda, CEO of Mexico Pacific Ltd.
Mexico Pacific plans to make a decision in late 2021 or early 2022 on whether to build an LNG export plant on Mexico's Pacific coast.
Analysts said "brownfield" projects built at existing LNG terminals like Energy Transfer's Lake Charles or Sempra's Costa Azul have a better chance of going forward than "greenfield" projects. Five of the six big operating U.S. LNG export plants are at brownfield sites.
"Brownfield projects tend to involve less cash and shorter development lead times," said Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate & resources at Eurasia Group in Singapore. "It will indeed be tough for most greenfield projects in North America to get FID in 2021."
