中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网休斯敦报道，当全世界都在痛苦地为毁灭性的2020年划上句号时，石油生产国现在正在评估这场新冠肺炎疫情大流行到2021年的持久影响——特别是评估石油需求破坏对全球平衡的后果。
2020年早些时候，现有的欧佩克+集团协议挽救了市场，使其免于崩溃，但随后Covid-19又卷土重来，掀起了第二波新冠肺炎疫情。据挪威能源研究公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad Energy）计算，如果石油产量从明年1月份开始按计划增加，到5月份，全球石油市场将不得不面临近2亿桶的供过于求。
欧佩克+集团将讨论是将目前减产的石油产量维持到2021年，还是按计划将日产量增加近200万桶。现有的计划是在第一波新冠肺炎疫情大流行期间起草的，是在对年底石油需求较为乐观的预测下制定的。由于第二波新冠肺炎疫情大流行带来新的全球封锁，全球石油需求最终被证明过高。
Rystad的平衡报告显示，如果欧佩克+不能修改现有协议并增加产量，全球1月将面临2020年4月以来最大的月度供大于求，当月平均每日供大于求为310万桶。供过于求的缩小势必会持续到5月份，导致2021年前5个月供过于求的总量将超过2亿桶，最终开始从明年6月份开始收缩。
Rystad 对欧佩克推迟增产的可能决定进行了建模，并计算了延长3个月和6个月对全球石油平衡的影响。
欧佩克+将1月增产计划推迟3个月，我们仍将看到5月连续出现供应过剩，但总供应量将限制在1.15亿桶左右。然而，如果欧佩克勇敢地呼吁将目前的减产协议延长6个月，过剩将在3月份以后结束，剩下的3个月供过于求的规模较小，仅为9000万桶，而4月的过剩将在6月底前消除。
Rystad 石油市场主管比约纳尔?托豪根说，“我们认为，保持目前的协议——该协议要求从2021年1月起将目标日产量提高190万桶——可能会使布伦特原油价格回落至每桶40美元或更低。延长3个月只能为油价提供边际支撑，但将有助于确立50美元作为更稳固的底部，而延长6个月可能有助于实质性地减少库存过剩，并将油价推高至50美元左右。”
托豪根补充说，从某种意义上说，欧佩克+已经锁定了在2021年将当前减产协议延长一段时间的可能性，而且很可能知道如果不这样做，欧佩克+将受到市场的惩罚。
他说，“石油需求复苏轨迹是欧佩克+在讨论是否修改供应机制时首要考虑的问题。我们预计，第二波新冠肺炎确证病例数将继续激增至2020年底，并在2021年对石油需求产生残留影响，导致复苏缓慢。目前，我们预计在今年年底前，原油总需求量不会超过9300万桶/天。”
如果欧佩克+的减产计划得以通过，主要的支持者当然将是市场上最灵活的边际供应来源——页岩油。过去几个月的情况表明，每桶40美元的布伦特原油价格足以减缓美国石油产量的增长前景。但与此同时，这一价格环境显然还不够高，不足以让企业茁壮成长，并购和破产活动的增加就是明证。
他说，2020年3月，欧佩克+协议破裂，当时与会各方未能就每日减产150万桶达成一致，引发油价全面崩盘，从该决定公布之日起至次日周一市场开盘，油价下跌了10美元/桶。这当然是特殊情况，但欧佩克本周的不信任投票肯定会对油价造成冲击，尽管这次冲击可能会温和一些。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Markets Face A 200 Million Barrel Glut In 2021
As the world is aching to put an end to a devastating 2020, oil producers are now assessing the lasting effect of the pandemic into 2021 – and in particular, the consequences of oil demand destruction to global balances. The existing OPEC+ group deal saved the market from collapsing earlier this year, but then Covid-19 came back with a second-wave. If output increases as planned from January, the world will have to face a new 200-million-barrel surplus through May, Rystad Energy calculates. The OPEC+ group will be debating whether or not to maintain its currently curtailed oil production levels to 2021 or to increase them as planned by nearly 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The existing plan was drafted during the pandemic’s first wave and under a more optimistic forecast for end-year oil demand, which turned out to be too high as the pandemic’s second wave brought new lockdowns globally.
Rystad Energy’s balances show that should OPEC+ fail to amend its existing deal and increases its production, the world in January will face its biggest monthly glut since April 2020 with an average daily surplus of 3.1 million barrels for the month. Smaller surpluses are bound to continue through May, building a total glut that will exceed 200 million barrels for the first five months of 2021, before finally starting to shrink from June.
Modeling a possible decision by OPEC+ to postpone its production increase, Rystad Energy has also calculated the effect on global oil balances of three-month and six-month extension scenarios.
OPEC+ postpones its planned January production increase by three months, we will still see consecutive monthly surpluses through May, but the total size will be limited to about 115 million barrels. Should, however, OPEC+ take the brave call to extend the current status quo for six months, then surpluses will end after March, leaving behind a smaller, three-month glut of just 90 million barrels, which will be erased by the end of June due to deficits coming from April.
“We believe keeping the current agreement in place – which calls for raising target production by 1.9 million bpd from January 2021 – could send Brent back down to $40 per barrel or lower. A three-month extension would only provide marginal support to prices, but would help to establish $50 as a sturdier floor, while a six-month extension could help to meaningfully deplete the storage overhang and supercharge prices into the mid-$50s,“ says Bjornar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Markets at Rystad Energy.
In a way, OPEC+ is already locked into extending its current cuts for some period in 2021 and probably knows it will be punished by the market if it doesn’t do so, Tonhaugen adds.
The oil demand recovery trajectory is the primary consideration of OPEC+ as it debates whether to modify its supply regime. We expect the second wave of Covid-19 cases to continue to surge through the end of 2020 and have a residual effect on oil demand in 2021, causing a slow recovery. At present, we expect demand for total liquids will not surpass 93 million bpd before year-end 2020.
Should the OPEC+ cut extension go through, the primary benefactor will of course be the most flexible marginal supply source on the market – shale. The past few months demonstrated that $40 Brent was enough to slow oil production growth prospects in the U..S shale patch, but at the same time, it was clearly not a high enough price environment to allow players to thrive, as evidenced by the increase in consolidation and bankruptcy activity.
“The breakup of the OPEC+ deal in March 2020, when participants failed to agree on an additional 1.5 million bpd of cuts, sparked a full collapse in oil prices with a drop of $10 per barrel from the time the decision was made public until markets opened the following Monday. These were of course special circumstances, but a vote of no confidence from OPEC+ this week would surely be crushing for oil prices, though perhaps to a milder degree this time,“ Tonhaugen concludes.
