中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网伦敦报道,美国惠誉评级公司(Fitch Ratings)日前表示,在欧佩克+决定从2021年1月开始每月日增50万桶原油产量之后,惠誉评级公司预计明年布伦特原油平均价格将为每桶45美元。
惠誉评级公司高级主管德米特里·马林琴科12月4日告诉美国全国广播公司财经频道(CNBC),“我们预计明年布伦特原油的平均价格将为每桶45美元。”
他补充说,“这是假设至少在下半年之前全球石油需求将保持疲弱,因为大规模疫苗接种的进展很可能不会很快。”
11月末,有关疫苗的消息推高了油价,而欧佩克+在经过长时间的讨论后,就减产协议的后续步骤达成了协议,这一事实帮助油价在本周保持高位。
然而,由于围绕疫苗分配的挑战以及明年将有更多欧佩克+石油进入市场的事实逐渐被人们所理解,这种情况可能很快就会改变。这还不包括不受欧佩克+减产协议约束的某国继续在增产。
马林琴科对美国全国广播公司财经频道记者表示,新冠肺炎疫苗不太可能对油价产生重大影响,这与人们普遍预期的相反,即一旦疫苗广泛可用,石油需求将迅速反弹。
辉瑞公司本周早些时候表示,由于供应链问题,该公司今年将只发运原计划疫苗剂量的一半,这表明大规模疫苗接种并不像许多人想要相信的那样简单。
马林琴科表示,“由于需求疲弱,加上欧佩克试图管理供应,以避免市场出现大量盈余或逆差,我们预计明年布伦特原油平均油价将在每桶45美元。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下:
Fitch Sees Brent At $45 Next Year
Fitch Ratings said it expected Brent crude to average $45 a barrel next year, following OPEC+’s decision to start raising production by 500,000 bpd monthly from January 2021.
“We expect prices to be, on average, at $45 next year for Brent,” Fitch senior director Dmitry Marinchenko told CNBC today.
“This assumes that the demand will remain weak until at least the second half of the year, because the progress with mass vaccination probably will not be very quick,” he added.
Vaccine news sent oil prices higher at the end of last month, and the fact that OPEC+ had achieved an agreement on the next steps in the production cut deal after long debates helped them stay higher this week.
However, this may soon change as the challenges around vaccine distribution and the fact that there will be more OPEC+ oil coming into markets next year sink in. And that’s without counting a certain country, which continues to boost its production, unbound by the OPEC+ deal.
Vaccines are unlikely to significantly affect oil prices, Marinchenko told CNBC, going counter to widespread expectations that once a vaccine is widely available, oil demand will quickly rebound.
In evidence that mass vaccination will not be as simple as many may want to believe, Pfizer said earlier this week it will only ship half of the vaccine doses it originally planned for this year because of supply chain problems.
“With weak demand, and with OPEC trying to manage supply … to avoid large surpluses or deficits in the market, we expect prices to be at $45 next year,” Fitch Ratings’ Marinchenko said