据油价网2020年8月18日休斯敦报道,自2013年以来,南美洲大幅削减了运营成本,当时南美洲地区是全球深水油气生产成本最高的地区。挪威雷斯塔能源公司(Rystad Energy)的一份报告显示,自那以来,南美洲桶油平均运营成本已减少了一半以上,从大约26美元/桶降至2020年的12.7美元/桶。就绝对成本和百分比而言,南美洲地区今年的成本降幅也是全球最大的。
南美洲的深水运营成本主要由巴西推动,在2013年至2020年期间,巴西占到了南美洲棕地运营成本的大约99%。仅巴西国家石油公司就占到了南美洲深海作业成本的近88%。因此,把降低运营成本的重点放在巴西身上以获得最大的效果是明智的。
帮助巴西节省运营成本的的一个重要因素是巴西国家石油公司放弃了其浮式产油、储油和卸油船(FPSO)船队。当这家巴西国有石油巨头最初开始在盐下盆地生产时,它选择了租用其所需的大部分船队,这导致了运营作业成本的飙升。2015-2016年,巴西国家石油公司开始订购更多自有的FPSO船。
统计数据显示,从2013年到2020年,巴西国家石油公司拥有的FPSO船增加了16艘,而租赁的FPSO船减少了6艘。在巴西的10个油田中,有8个油田是通过自有的FPSO船开发的,启用时间从2018年至2020年,其余两个油田使用租赁的FPSO船,这证实了巴西国家石油公司已经从租赁FPSO船转向自己拥有FPSO船。
受当前市场波动和能源行业动荡的刺激,巴西国家石油公司今年还通过买断计划将员工人数减少了大约22%。巴西国家石油公司计划在今年通过降低管理费用和放弃不必要的办公空间来实现总成本削减大约20亿美元。
南美洲运营成本下降的另一个重要因素是巴西雷亚尔兑换美元的汇率自2013年以来下跌了55.2%,这降低了每桶原油的作业成本,因为作业成本以巴西货币雷亚尔产生,但以美元支付。因此,雷亚尔的贬值有助于抵消当地一般商品和服务的价格通胀压力。
从2013年到2020年,巴西国家石油公司增加了石油和天然气产量,由于规模经济,这进一步降低了每桶原油的运营成本。从全球和更通用的角度来看,已投产油田的运营成本通常更低。
除了上述两个重要因素外,南美洲生产油田的投资组合也变得越来越成熟,而更新的油田比运营成本较高的成熟油田需要更少的维护。在过去的8年里,南美洲有超过110个成熟油田被遗弃,新油田的产量目前占南美洲总产量的一半以上,而非常成熟油田的产量只占17%。总体而言,自2013年以来,南美洲来自开采寿命已超过一半油田的产量所占份额已急剧下降。考虑到巴西在这一领域缺乏经验,看看巴西和巴西国家石油公司在几年后开始退役老油田时的成本状况将是很有参考价值的。
雷斯塔能源公司负责服务研究的副总裁马修·菲茨西蒙斯说:“展望未来,我们预计深水每桶原油运营成本在2020年至2021年将保持相对平稳。不过,2021年以后,我们预计每桶原油的运营成本将增加大约4美元,并将一直保持到2024年,2025年将再增加大约1美元。”
疫情带来的不确定性意味着,服务公司、运营商和投资者在未来数月乃至数年将继续关注预算,远离任何非盈利或高风险项目。由于今年布伦特原油现货价格普遍走低且动荡不安,不符合公司制定的成本和风险标准的投资和项目可能会被推迟。
因此,实现尽可能低的单位运营成本比以往任何时候都更加重要,尽管像2014-2016年那样的成本削减不太可能,因为很多可能性都已经用尽了。南美洲,特别是巴西采取的降低成本战略,可以作为其他陷入困境的地区和国家的路线图。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下:
South America Is Rapidly Becoming A Global Leader In Offshore Oil
South America has made a cost-cutting leap since 2013, when it was the world’s most expensive region for deepwater oil and gas production costs. Average operational expenditure (opex) per barrel of oil equivalent has more than halved since then, from roughly $26 to $12.7 in 2020, a Rystad Energy report shows. The region also enjoyed the largest cost decline globally this year, in both absolute and percentage terms.
South America’s deepwater opex is driven mainly by Brazil, which accounted for roughly 99% of the continent’s brownfield costs from 2013 to 2020. Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras alone accounted for nearly 88% of South America’s deepwater opex. It therefore makes sense to focus the cost reductions on Brazil to get the greatest impact.
One of the factors that have helped Brazil save opex is Petrobras switching out its floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) fleet. When the state player initially began production on pre-salt basins it chose to rent most of its fleet, which led to a surge in its operational costs. In 2015–2016 the company started ordering more owned FPSOs.
Our numbers show that Petrobras increased its fleet of owned FPSOs by 16 whilst reducing the number of leased FPSOs by six from 2013 to 2020. Eight out of 10 fields in Brazil with start-up years from 2018 to 2020 have been developed via owned FPSOs while the two remaining fields use leased units, confirming the country’s shift from leased to owned vessels.
Spurred by the current Covid-19 market volatility and turmoil in the energy industry, Petrobras has also cut its employee count by roughly 22% this year by way of buyout programs. The company plans to achieve total cost cuts of around $2 billion in 2020 by lowering its overhead and relinquishing unnecessary office space.
Another important driver for the reduction in opex in South America is a 55.2% drop in the value of the Brazilian real (BRL) against the US dollar (USD) exchange rate since 2013. This has reduced opex per barrel as the costs are incurred in BRL but paid in USD. The depreciation in the real has therefore helped offset local price inflation pressures for general goods and services.
Petrobras has also increased its oil and gas production from 2013 to 2020, which has driven the opex per barrel down further thanks to economies of scale. Looking at this from a global and more generic perspective, already producing fields are generally more likely to have lower opex.
In addition to the factors mentioned above, the portfolio of producing fields in South America has been getting younger – and newer fields require much less maintenance than mature fields that generally have higher operational costs. More than 110 mature fields have been abandoned on the continent over the past eight years, with new fields now accounting for over half of the total production in South America compared to 17% from very mature fields. In general, the production share from fields that have passed half of their lifetime has decreased drastically in South America since 2013. It will be interesting to see the cost profiles of Brazil and Petrobras when decommissioning of older fields starts in a few years, given the country’s lack of experience in this area.
“Looking towards the future, we expect deepwater opex per barrel to stay relatively flat through 2020 to 2021. However, after 2021 we see lifting costs per production increasing by roughly $4 per boe, staying at that level through 2024 with an increase of approximately $1 in 2025,“ says Rystad Energy’s Vice President Energy Service Research Matthew Fitzsimmons.
The Covid-19 inflicted uncertainty means that service companies, operators and investors will continue to watch their budgets and stay clear of any non-profitable or high-risk projects in the months and years ahead. Due to the generally low and turbulent Brent spot price this year, investments and projects that do not meet the cost and risk criteria set forth by the companies are likely to be delayed.
Attaining the lowest possible cost per production will therefore be more vital than ever, despite the fact that cost reductions like the ones seen in 2014–2016 are unlikely as many of the possibilities have already been exhausted. Cost reduction strategies adopted by South America, and more specifically Brazil, could serve as a roadmap for other struggling regions and countries.