据油价网2020年8月14日休斯敦报道,根据美国能源信息署(EIA)日前发布的最新统计数据,美国今年原油日产量将平均减少99万桶,减少到1126万桶。这一减少幅度远高于EIA在7月份的《短期能源展望》(STEO)报告中做出的预测。
今年7月,EIA曾预测,今年全年美国平均原油日产量将下降62万桶。
EIA警告说,由于与疫情有关的缓解和重新启动的努力仍在继续变化, 美国8月份的原油产量 “仍然面临高度不确定性”。
EIA对8月份的STEO的假设是基于IHS Markit的宏观经济预测,该公司假设今年上半年GDP下降5.2%,从第3季度至2021年期间GDP将上升。
除了美国石油生产前景下滑外,STEO认为原油库存高企和产能过剩将在未来几个月里拖累油价。
根据EIA的估计,由于欧佩克的产量配额和美国低油价导致的减产,今年第二季度全球液体燃料日产量平均为9180万桶,比去年同期减少了860万桶。
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下:
U.S. Oil Production To Fall More Than Expected This Year
U.S. crude oil production will drop by an average of 990,000 barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration, for an average of 11.26 million bpd. That is a far greater loss than the agency expected during its previous forecast made in the July Short Term Energy Outlook.
In July, the EIA had forecast that crude oil production in the United States would fall by an average of 620,000 barrels per day for the full year 2020.
That the August STEO “remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because mitigation and reopening efforts related to the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continue to evolve,” the EIA warned.
The assumptions for this month’s STEO were based on macroeconomic forecasts from IHS Markit, which assumes that GDP fell 5.2% in H1 2020, and will rise from Q3 2020 through 2021.
In addition to the reduced outlook for U.S. oil production, the STEO sees high crude inventory levels and excess production capacity as a drag on oil prices in the coming months.
The EIA’s estimate for global liquid fuels production came in at an average 91.8 million barrels per day in Q2—8.6 million bpd less than the same period in 2019, driven by production quotas for OPEC and reduced production in the United States due to low oil prices.
The EIA, however, is expecting U.S. production to average 11.14 barrels per day next year, a small decline than what it was forecasting last month. That is as U.S. oil demand next year is expected to rebound by 1.57 million bpd to 20.03 million bpd.