亚洲汽油利润率有所改善但挑战依然存在

据世界石油6月30日报道，分析师称，随着需求出现复苏，亚洲炼油商从汽油中获得的利润较5月初的纪录低位增长逾两倍，不过炼油商在维持供应后增加产量可能会限制利润增长。

Refinitiv数据显示，周一新加坡百万分之十含硫量的汽油的炼油利润较迪拜原油每高出每桶6.29美元，高于5月5日创下的1.77美元的纪录低点。

汽油现货溢价在今年最高水平附近徘徊，交易商认为，由于工业燃料的最糟糕时期已经过去，该地区的整体炼油利润率将得到支撑。

咨询公司FGE亚洲石油主管Sri Paravaikkarasu表示:“工业活动的恢复，以及公路货运和运输需求的改善，将支持主要经济体第三季度汽油需求的复苏。”FGE预计，今年下半年的汽油日需求量将较上半年增加60万桶，但仍比去年同期少49万桶。

Paravaikkarasu补充称:"该地区第三季度的汽油过剩趋势为每日90万桶左右，下半年平均为每日84万桶，较上半年减少30万桶。"Refinitiv Eikon从2014年开始的数据显示，尽管近期有所上涨，但汽油利润仍处于有记录以来最弱的季节性水平。

惠誉解决方案(Fitch Solutions)高级油气分析师Peter Lee表示:“炼油厂重新增加产量对市场来说不是好兆头。”

印度、韩国、日本和泰国等国的炼油厂，以及中国炼油企业，预计将从本月开始增加产量，因为疫情形势转好提振了对石油产品的需求。

洪伟立 摘译自 世界石油

原文如下：

Asian gasoil margins improve as lockdowns ease, but challenges remain

Asian refiners’ profits from gasoil have more than trebled from a record low seen in early May as demand recovers after sweeping lockdowns imposed to curb the COVID-19 pandemic, although refiners ramping up production after maintenance could cap gains, analysts said.

Refining profits for gasoil with 10 parts per million of sulphur in Singapore were at $6.29 a barrel over Dubai crude on Monday, up from a record low of $1.77 on May 5, Refinitiv data showed.

Gasoil spot premiums are hovering near their strongest levels this year, while traders believe that overall refining margins in the region will be supported as the worst is behind for the industrial fuel.

“Resumption in industrial activities and an improvement in road freight and transport needs will support a recovery in the third quarter gasoil demand in major economies,” said Sri Paravaikkarasu, director for Asia oil at consultancy FGE.

FGE expects gasoil demand in the second half of the year to rise by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the first half, but still be 490,000 bpd lower compared with the same period a year ago.

“The region’s gasoil surplus should trend flat q-o-q at around 900,000 bpd in the third quarter and the second half (of 2020) should average at 840,000 bpd, down by 300,000 bpd compared to the first half of the year,” Paravaikkarasu added.

Despite recent gains, gasoil profits are still at their weakest seasonal levels on record, according to Refinitiv Eikon data that goes back to 2014.

“Refiners re-ramping up output does not bode well for the markets,” said Peter Lee, senior oil and gas analyst at Fitch Solutions.

Refineries in countries such as India, South Korea, Japan and Thailand, alongside Chinese refiners are expected to increase output starting this month as the easing of lockdown measures boosts demand for oil products.