据世界天然气5月11日报道，法国天然气研究中心(Cedigaz)发布其2020年首次预测，2019年，在供过于求的背景下，全球经济增长放缓和冬季的温和天气等因素导致全球天然气需求增长放缓，造成液化天然气过剩，价格大幅下降。天然气需求增速已从2018年的5%放缓至2019年的2.3%，回复到本世纪初以来的年均增速。主要是因为电力和工业部门能源需求从煤炭和石油转向天然气，这是由天然气较强劲的竞争力所推动的，得益于日益丰富的低成本供应，美国和欧洲的情况尤其如此。因此，天然气仍然是能源需求增长的主要受益行业，其在能源结构中的份额进一步扩大。
2019年，全球天然气消费量达到39480亿立方米，比2018年增长2.3%。与2018年一样，美国和中国是两大增长中心，分别占全球增长的31%和27%。不过，在经济增长放缓的背景下，这两个市场的天然气需求扩张速度较前几年有所放缓。这一放缓也是天气因素以及放宽煤转气政策的结果。欧洲联盟(增长2.4%)、大洋洲(澳大利亚、印度)、北非(阿尔及利亚)、中东和经合组织美洲地区(加拿大、智利)的需求也很强劲。相反，独联体(俄罗斯、乌克兰)的天然气需求下降，主要是受到冬季温和气候的影响。
2019年，全球市场天然气产量实现了快速增长，增幅达3.5%，至40010亿立方米，年增长量为1360亿立方米。全球天然气供应增长的近40%用于液化天然气出口，其余部分用于国内消费。仅美国就占全球增长的三分之二左右。美国干气产量的增长(+10%)部分是由油田伴生气的增长和新的天然气管道容量推动的。澳大利亚、中国、俄罗斯和埃及也提供了显著的增长。相反，欧洲天然气产量(包括挪威)下降了7%，导致对外依存度增加。
2019年，国际天然气贸易(净流量)强劲增长3.8%，至9920亿立方米。这一增长只能归因于液化天然气供应的激增(+ 12.6%)，，这抵消了管道流量的大幅减少（-4.3%）。这一发展反映出，相对于管道天然气，具有高度竞争力的液化天然气供应日益丰富，尤其欧盟吸收了大部分额外的全球液化天然气供应(全球525亿立方米的增量中的500亿立方米)，成为了一个维持液化天然气业务平衡的市场。
美国天然气产量继续以比需求快得多的速度增长，从而创造了大量的出口顺差。2019年，美国进入全球十大天然气出口国行列，成为全球第五大天然气出口国。
随着全球供应能力增长超过需求增长，天然气现货价格在2019年突然下跌，导致大量库存注入。与2018年相比，亚洲和欧洲市场的现货价格下跌了40%以上，导致油价与现货价格脱钩。新的定价和交易模式重塑了日益依赖现货价格和灵活的天然气供应的全球天然气市场。
王佳晶 摘译自 世界天然气
原文如下：
NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWTH MODERATED BUT REMAINED STRONG - CEDIGAZ
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas, has just released its ? First Estimates 2020”. In 2019, slower economic growth, Chinese policy changes and a mild winter caused global gas demand growth to slow in a context of oversupply, resulting in a growing LNG surplus and much lower prices. The growth in natural gas demand has slowed down from 5% in 2018 to 2.3% in 2019, returning to the average annual growth rate observed since the start of the century. The main factor behind growth was the switching from coal and oil to natural gas in the power and industry sectors, which was prompted by the competitiveness of natural gas thanks to a growing abundant low-cost supply. This was notably the case in the United States and Europe. Thus, natural gas has remained the main beneficiary of the energy demand growth, to the detriment of coal in particular, causing its share in the energy mix to expand further.
Global natural gas consumption reached 3948 bcm in 2019, a 2.3% growth from 2018, Like in 2018, the US and China were the two main growth centres, accounting for respectively 31% and 27% of the global increase. However, the expansion of natural gas demand in these two markets slowed down compared to the previous years in a context of weakening economic growth. This slowdown also resulted from weather factors as well as the relaxation of policy on coal-to-gas switching. Demand was also strong in the European Union (+ 2.4%), Asia-Oceania (Australia, India), North Africa (Algeria), the Middle East (Iran) and OECD Americas (Canada, Chile). Reversely, natural gas demand declined in the CIS (Russia, Ukraine), mainly as a result of a mild winter.
Global marketed gas production pursued its rapid expansion, up 3.5% to 4001 bcm in 2019, corresponding to an annual incremental volume of 136 bcm. Almost 40% of the global gas supply growth was dedicated to LNG exports, the remaining volume was consumed domestically. The US alone explained around two-thirds of the global increase. US dry gas production growth (+ 10%) was, in part, driven by a growth of associated gas from oil fields and by new gas pipeline capacity. Other significant increments were provided by Australia, China, Russia and Egypt. Reversely, European gas production (Norway included) fell by 7%, resulting in a growing external dependence.
International gas trade (net flows) grew at a robust rate of 3.8% to 992 bcm in 2019. This growth can be only attributed to the surge of LNG supply (+ 12.6%), which more than offset a significant reduction in pipeline flows (- 4.3%). This development reflects the growing abundance of highly competitive LNG supply which gained ground over pipeline gas, especially in the European Union, which absorbed most of the extra global LNG supply (50 bcm out of a global increment of 52.5 bcm), acting as a balancing market for the LNG business.
US gas production continued to increase at a much faster rate than consumption, thereby creating a large surplus destined for exports. In 2019, the US entered the rankings of the top-ten exporters to become the fifth largest natural gas exporter worldwide.
Spot gas prices fell abruptly in 2019 as global supply capacity growth outpaced demand growth, resulting in massive storage injections. Spot prices on the Asian and European markets plunged by more than 40% compared to 2018, resulting in a decoupling between oil-indexed and spot prices. New pricing and trading patterns reshape the global gas market which increasingly relies on spot-priced and flexible gas supply.
