英国勘探项目增加但成功率却大幅下跌

据12月2日Energy Voice报道，一名分析师表示，自去年以来，英国北海的勘探活动大幅增加，但成功率急剧下降。

今年迄今，已经完成了13口探井，另外两口将在12月底前完成。而去年只有6口探井完工，这是自上世纪60年代中期开始勘探以来的最低完井数量。2019年全年勘探和评估井的总数应该是25口，而去年是16口。

咨询公司韦斯特伍德全球能源集团(Westwood Global Energy Group)高级分析师大卫?莫斯利（David Moseley）表示，今年以来完井数量不断增加。他对勘探项目的增加并不感到意外，但他对勘探的规模印象深刻。

坏消息是，许多这样的油井根本没有得到回报。当然，勘探是一项有风险的工作——你钻得越多，失败的可能性就越大。但就百分比而言，英国的商业成功率已从2014年至2018年间的约30%降至今年的不到10%。

今年，公司钻探了更多的预测有巨大前景的油田，同样风险也更大，但回报更高（1亿桶甚至更多)的油井）。因为前几年钻探的油井多接近已探明储量的地区，因此商业成功率较高，但它们的产量也较低。而2019年，公司勘探的偏好发生了重大变化。

邹勤 摘译自 Energy Voice

原文如下：

UK exploration up but success rate ‘falls off a cliff’

Exploration activity in the UK North Sea has picked up substantially since last year, but the success rate has “fallen off a cliff”, an analyst has said.

Thirteen exploration wells have been completed so far this year, with another two to be added by the end of December.

Just six exploration wells were completed last year, the lowest number since exploration began in the mid-1960s.

The total number of exploration and appraisal wells should be 25 for the full-year 2019, compared to 16 last year.

David Moseley, senior analyst at research-led consultancy Westwood Global Energy Group, said the only way was up after last year.

Mr Moseley said he was not surprised that activity had increased, but that he was impressed by the scale of upsurge.

The bad news is that many of these wells have simply not paid off.

Of course, exploration is a risky business – the more you drill, the greater the likelihood of getting dusters.

But in percentage terms, the UK’s commercial success rate has dropped from around 30% between 2014 and 2018, to less than 10% this year.

There is an explanation for this fall-off: Explorers have acquired an “appetite for risk”, according to Mr Moseley.

This year companies have drilled more “high impact” prospects – wells with a greater degree of risk, but a higher pay-off (100 million barrels or more).

Commercial success rates were higher in previous years because more of the wells were close to proven assets. But they also had lower volumes.

“In 2019, we’ve seen a step change in the nature of exploration,” Mr Moseley said.