据ICIS网站11月13日法国巴黎报道 根国际能源机构(IEA)星期三表示,未来几十年全球回收率将大幅上升,但随着新兴经济体的城市化,石油化工行业对原油的需求将继续上升。
在其年度世界能源展望(WEO)中,IEA表示,塑料回收将是关键,以减少化学品的需求,这反过来又有助于减少材料生产过程中的二氧化碳排放。
IEA称,化学工业将需要适应这样一个事实,即提高塑料的回收率可能“取代相当大的化学品业务”的需求。
塑料由主要的石化产品聚烯烃衍生物生产,如聚乙烯(PE)和聚丙烯(PP)。
国际能源机构的能源展望包括两种情况。它所称的既定政策情景考虑了各国目前在能源使用方面所作的承诺,尽管随着气候变暖越来越成为这些政策未来可能改变的一个因素。
另外一方面被国际能源机构称为“可持续发展方案”,根据2015年《限制全球变暖巴黎协定》,为全面实现全球气候、空气质量和能源获取目标提供了战略途径。
在这两方面,石化产品对原油的需求都将增加。
王磊 摘译自 ICIS
原文如下:
Petchems demand for crude oil set to boom despite rising recycling rates - IEA
Global recycling rates are set to boom in coming decades but demand for crude oil from the petrochemicals industry is set to continue rising as emerging economies urbanise, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
In its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO), the Paris-based Agency said that plastics recycling will be key to reducing chemicals material demand, which would in turn contribute to cutting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions emanating from materials production.
The chemicals industry will need to adapt to the fact that improving recycling rates of plastics could “displace considerable chemicals sector” demand, the agency said.
Plastics are produced with key petrochemicals’ derivatives called polyolefins, like polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).
The IEA’s outlook includes two scenarios. What it calls Stated Policies Scenario, which considers the current pledges made by countries regarding energy use, although as climate warming becomes more of an factor those policies may change in the future.
The other route, which the IEA has termed the Sustainable Development Scenario, “provides a strategic pathway to meet global climate, air quality and energy access goals in full” as per the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming.
In both scenarios, petrochemicals’ demand for crude oil is set to increase.