据能源之声11月9日消息称,国际能源署(IEA)的一份新报告称,为非洲提供能源的努力将变得越来越重要,尤其是在平衡碳排放方面。
有必要将电力部门的开支增加到每年1200亿美元。
向公众提供电力方面也取得了一些进展,2013年无电人口达到6.2亿,2018年下降到5.95亿。然而,人口增长的速度使这些项目受到压力。埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚在扩大电力供应方面也取得了进展。
更多的人口、向城市的转移、更高的收入和更炎热的天气也将推动更多的电力需求。IEA表示,这方面的需求将会翻一番,但能效措施可能会使这种转变所需的电力减半。
在2011年以来发现的大量国内资源的推动下,天然气将在这一发电动力中发挥关键作用。2011年至2018年间,莫桑比克和坦桑尼亚的天然气发现占全球的24%,而整个非洲约占41%。目前,天然气仅占非洲大陆发电总量的5%,但根据IEA的非洲数据,这一比例将升至24%。
IEA的预测是,到2040年,该国的天然气产量将增加2700亿立方米,是2018年的两倍。为了开发天然气资源,将需要大型管道,但这种基础设施是昂贵的,因此很可能与其他方法相结合,如线传气和压缩天然气(CNG)或液化天然气,以达到遥远的市场。
在国内消费增长的同时,非洲大陆也成为由莫桑比克和埃及牵头的主要出口地区。
可再生能源占非洲大陆新发电总量的四分之三,太阳能光伏发电在装机容量方面居首位,在发电量方面居第二位。
过去几年的情况表明,非洲大陆的石油出口不能作为一种稳定的收入来源,但仍有向世界各地输送新的矿物流的可能性。非洲拥有全球一半以上的钴、铂和钽资源,这些资源都在新能源工程中发挥着作用。IEA还表示,与石油相比,天然气可能提供更安全的收入来源。
曹海斌 摘译自 Energy Voice
原文如下:
IEA: Gas and renewables to power Africa
The struggle to provide Africa with energy will become increasingly important, particularly in terms of balancing power with carbon emissions, a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.
There is a need to increase spending on the power sector to $120 billion per year.
Some progress is being made in terms of providing power to the people, with the number without electricity peaking at 620 million in 2013, declining to 595 million in 2018. Such projects are strained though by the rate at which the population grows. Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya were also noted as having made progress in broadening access to electricity.
More people, a shift into cities, higher incomes and more hot weather will also drive the need for more cooling. Demand for this will double, the IEA said, but efficiency measures can halve the electricity needed for such a shift.
Gas will play a key role in this drive to generate power, driven by the substantial volume of domestic resources discovered since 2011. Mozambique and Tanzania account for 24% of the world’s finds between 2011 and 2018, while Africa as a whole accounts for around 41%. Gas only provides 5% of the continent’s power mix at present, but rises to 24% under the IEA’s Africa case.
The IEA’s projection puts output as increasing by 270 billion cubic metres by 2040, doubling 2018 volumes. In order to exploit the gas resources there will be a need for large-scale pipelines but this infrastructure is expensive and so is likely to be combined with other methods, such as gas-by-wire and compressed natural gas (CNG) or LNG to reach remote markets.
While domestic consumption will rise, the continent also becomes a major exporter, led by Mozambique and Egypt.
Renewables accounts for three quarters of the continent’s new generation, with solar photovoltaic taking the top spot in terms of installed capacity, and second position in terms of generation output.
The continent’s oil exports cannot be relied upon as a stable source of income, as the last few years have demonstrated, but there is scope for new mineral flows to be sent around the world. Africa holds more than half the world’s resources of cobalt, platinum and tantalum, all of which play a part in engineering for new energies. The IEA also said gas is likely to provide a more secure source of revenues than oil.