未来全球天然气需求超预期

中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社9月11日报道，未来几十年，世界对天然气的需求可能会超过此前的预期，因为白天的低电价可能会限制太阳能发电厂的发展。

根据能源和海上风险服务公司DNV GL AS的一份报告，到2050年，最清洁的化石燃料在一次能源结构中所占的份额将高达29%。一年前，一份类似报告将所占份额定为25%——太阳能的贡献率从去年的16%降至12%。

DNV总裁雷米?埃里克森(Remi Eriksen)表示，白天的电价会跌至如此之低的水平，将导致投资者建造的太阳能光伏发电能力可能会低于此前的预期。

DNV表示，对天然气需求的激增凸显出，全球可能无法实现巴黎气候协议中所要求的目标。全球咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey & Co.)周二在另一份报告中估计，要满足2028年后液化天然气的需求，需要超过4,000亿美元的投资。

根据DNV 的预测，随着能源转型，碳排放量将在2025年达到峰值，但到本世纪末气温仍将上升2.5摄氏度(4.5华氏度)。

洪伟立 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

More Natural Gas Is Needed as Low Power Prices Dent Solar

The world will probably need more power from natural gas in the coming decades than previously thought because low electricity prices during the day could limit the rise in solar plants.

The cleanest fossil fuel’s share of the primary energy mix in 2050 will be as much as 29%, according to a report by energy and maritime risk services company DNV GL AS. A similar report a year ago had pegged the share at 25%. Solar’s contribution was cut to 12%, from 16% a year earlier.

The price of electricity during the day will fall so low, investors will probably build less solar photovoltaic capacity than previously expected, Remi Eriksen, president of DNV said by phone.

The surging need for gas underscores that the world probably won’t meet targets implied in the Paris climate deal, DNV GL said. Meeting liquefied natural gas demand after 2028 will require more than $400 billion of investment, global consultants McKinsey & Co. estimated Tuesday in a separate report.

Emissions are set to peak in 2025 amid a dramatic energy transition, yet temperatures will still rise by 2.5 Celsius (4.5 Fahrenheit) by the end of the century, according to DNV GL’s forecasts.