液化石油气市场恢复平衡的道路漫长

中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工在线8月29日消息称，根据ESAI Energy最新发布的《全球液化石油气12个月展望》，今年冬天，新的基础设施将使美国和加拿大向全球市场出口至多160万桶/天的液化石油气，造成供需失衡。

随着强劲的产量增长和大量过剩库存寻求市场，这种新的出口能力对亚洲和欧洲的石脑油液化石油气的定价以及液化石油气市场的重新平衡都有影响。

ESAI Energy的报告称，全球需求增长将不足以消化北美更高的产量和过剩库存。在2018年，石脑油裂解装置增加了他们的LPG引入量，液化石油气日需求量增加30万桶。

今年，需求的增长速度甚至会更慢。相比之下，今年全球炼油厂和分馏塔的液化石油气日产量将增加35万桶，导致市场供过于求。事实上，目前限制北美出口的瓶颈是由于缺乏出口终端产能，但到目前为止，这一瓶颈并没有阻止海外市场“一切照常”的库存建设。

ESAI Energy NGLs负责人Andrew Reed解释道：“2020年液化石油气市场与上一次在2016年北美出现出口瓶颈的情况之间存在重大差异。当时，油价暴跌刺激了创纪录的需求增长，使美国液化石油气产量增长陷入停滞因此，市场在几个月内就消化掉了过剩的库存。这一次，恢复平衡的道路将会漫长得多。”

曹海斌 摘译自 烃加工在线

原文如下：

LPG on long road back to balance

This winter, new infrastructure will enable the US and Canada to export up to 1.6 million bpd of LPG to the global market, creating a mismatch between supply and demand, according to ESAI Energy’s newly released ‘Global NGL 12-month Outlook’.

With robust production growth and plenty of excess inventories looking for a market, this new export capability has implications for LPG-on-naphtha pricing in Asia and Europe, and the re-balancing of the LPG market.

Global demand growth will be inadequate to absorb North America’s higher production and excess inventories, according to ESAI Energy’s report. In 2018, naphtha crackers increased their LPG intake and overall LPG demand increased by 300 000 bpd.

This year, demand is on pace to grow even less. In contrast, global LPG production from refineries and fractionators will increase by 350 000 bpd this year, resulting in an oversupplied market. As it is, the current bottleneck limiting North American exports, caused by a lack of export terminal capacity, has so far not prevented ‘business-as-usual’ stock-building in overseas markets.

“There are key differences between the 2020 LPG market and what happened the last time North America emerged from an export bottleneck in 2016,” explains ESAI Energy Head of NGLs Andrew Reed. “Back then, the oil price collapse stimulated record demand growth and brought US LPG production growth to a halt. Consequently, the market burned through excess inventories in a matter of months. This time around, the road back to balance will be much longer.”