摩根士丹利下调2019年油价需求展望

中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社报道，摩根士丹利下调了今年剩余时间的油价预测，理由是经济前景疲软、需求疲软以及较高的页岩产量增长可能抵消欧佩克支持市场的努力。

该银行在周二发布的一份报告中表示：“2019年初开始的石油需求增长放缓尚未结束，随着全球经济增长放缓，需求增长放缓。”

这家美国银行将其2019年布伦特原油价格预测从每桶65美元下调至每桶60美元，并将其今年第三和第四季度的WTI预期从先前的每桶58美元下调至每桶55美元。

该公司还将其2019年石油需求增长预期从每天100万桶降至每天80万桶，2020年石油需求增长预测从每天140万桶降至每天100万桶。

分析人士表示：“如果石油输出国组织（欧佩克）要平衡市场，2020年将需要削减更多的产量，这在很大程度上取决于明年的需求增长，但根据我们目前的估计，2020年，对欧佩克的期望要比当前产量低100万桶/日。”

原油价格从2019年4月份的高点下跌了约20%，一部分原因为中美之间的贸易摩擦，这对全球经济和石油需求造成了伤害。

由于经济不确定性，其他银行也发现了石油需求增长面临风险。

上个月， 巴克莱银行下调了今年下半年和2020年的油价预测，称由于全球宏观经济背景弱于预期，预计需求增长将放缓。

詹晓晶 摘自 路透社

原文如下：

Morgan Stanley cuts 2019 oil prices outlook on demand, growth concerns

Morgan Stanley has lowered its oil price forecasts for the rest of the year citing a weaker economic outlook, faltering demand and higher shale growth that could offset OPEC’s efforts to support the market.

“The slowdown in oil demand growth that started in early 2019 has not come to an end yet,” the bank said in a note published on Tuesday. “Demand growth has softened as global economic growth has slowed.”

The U.S. bank cut its 2019 Brent price forecast to $60 per barrel from $65, and cut its WTI outlook for the third and fourth quarters of this year to $55 from $58 previously.

It also lowered its 2019 oil demand growth outlook to 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 1 million bpd, and its 2020 forecast to 1 million bpd from 1.4 million bpd.

“More cuts would be required in 2020 if Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) were to balance the market. Much depends on demand growth next year, but on our current estimates the ‘call on OPEC’ is about 1 million bpd below current production in 2020,” analysts said.

Crude oil prices have fallen about 20% from 2019 highs hit in April, in part due to an escalating trade war between the United States and China, which is seen hurting the global economy and in turn, demand for oil.

Other banks have also flagged risks to oil demand growth due to economic uncertainties.

Last month, Barclays cut its oil price forecasts for the second half of this year and 2020, saying it expected slower demand growth due to a weaker-than-expected global macroeconomic backdrop.