OPEC：下半年全球石油需求增长将有所改善

中国石化新闻网讯 据阿联酋通讯社6月24日报道，OPEC预计，全球石油需求增长将从2019年上半年的低迷表现中得到改善，预计2019年下半年将增长120万桶/天。

OPEC在其最新月度石油市场报告中表示:“美洲经济合作与发展组织(OECD)预计，受轻质馏分油需求推动，预计今年下半年，经合组织地区石油产量将同比增长20万桶/天。

相比之下，经合组织预计，欧洲经济增长将放缓，而亚太地区将因石化原料需求下降而下滑。

OPEC预计，2019年下半年，非OPEC国家的供应增长将显示出进一步的上行潜力，预计美国的产量将会增加，巴西的产量也会增加，挪威在北海的Johan Sverdrup油田可能会投产，预测增长量达214万桶/天。

报告总结：综上所述在2019年上半年全球经济放缓，并将在2019年下半年进一步受到挑战，主要是国际贸易争端增多，对石油需求增长的影响仍不确定。尽管非OPEC产油国的石油供应继续增长，但2019年下半年关键地区的增产程度将成主要决定因素。

洪伟立 摘译自 阿联酋通讯社

原文如下：

Global oil demand growth to improve in H2-2019: OPEC

OPEC has expected global oil demand growth to improve seasonally, from the sluggish performance seen in H1-2019, with growth in H2-2019 forecast at 1.2 million barrels/day y-o-y.

"The OECD region is forecast to increase by 200,000 b/d y-o-y in 2H19, on the back of growth in OECD Americas, driven by solid light distillate demand," said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report.

In contrast, OECD Europe is forecast to contract due to slower economic momentum, while OECD Asia Pacific will decline on lower petrochemical feedstock demand," added the report.

For H2-19, OPEC expects non-OPEC supply growth to show further upside potential, with higher production expected in the US, as well as production ramp-ups in Brazil and possibly the start-up of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, leading to a growth forecast of 2.14m b/d for 2019.

"In summary, the observed slowdown in the global economy in H1-19 will further be challenged in H2-19, mainly by mounting trade disputes, with the impact on oil demand growth remaining uncertain. While growth in non-OPEC supply continues, the extent of additional production in key regions in H2-19 will mainly depend on volumes of start- and ramp-ups," concluded the report.