中国石化新闻网讯 据OGJ 5月17日休斯顿报道，Wood Mackenzie的研究显示，受各类子油气产量不断上升的推动，加拿大蒙特尼油气公司(Montney play)今年的天然气产量可能达到10亿桶/天，较2018年增长16%，预计到2030年将达到20桶/天。
预计2019年液体燃料产量将增长26%，天然气产量可能增长14%。
尽管油价下跌，但在液体原油产量提高的推动下，次级市场的经济状况有所改善，从而巩固了蒙特尼的地位，在2美元/Mcf的价位上，这在很大程度上是经济作用。
WoodMac资深分析师Nathan Nemeth表示，"天然气价格低迷已促使运营商重新考虑蒙特尼的开发计划。"
“蒙特尼的专家在改进完井设计方面取得了重大进展，并获得了运营业绩的回报。液体燃料推动了这个进程，”他说。
2010年至2014年期间的钻井活动由有液化天然气出口愿望的运营商主导。从2015年开始，以天然气液体(尤其是凝析油)为目标的运营商主导了相关活动。
并不是所有的蒙特尼地区都有丰富的液体燃料。剩余的价值估计超过650亿美元(预计)，但内梅斯指出，价值集中在最好的领域，前五个子项目占74%。
在这一阶段，两个地区约占蒙特尼液体生产的50%:不列颠哥伦比亚省的Heritage和阿尔伯塔省的Kakwa。
“但你也有康菲石油(ConocoPhillips)和墨菲(Murphy)等国际公司，以及壳牌(Shell)、马来西亚国家石油公司(Petronas)、三菱(Mitsubishi)等液化天然气(lng)推动的活动。
他表示:“蒙特尼的液化天然气产量不断增长，加上去年加拿大液化天然气项目的最终投资决定，使蒙特尼成为关注未来的一个重要因素。”
薛珂 编译自 OGJ
原文如下：
Liquids yield driving Montney production growth forecast
Total production in Canada’s Montney play will likely reach 10 bcfd of natural gas equivalent this year, an increase of 16% from 2018, and is forecasted to reach 20 bcfed by 2030, driven by rising liquids yield across various sub-plays, according to Wood Mackenzie research.
Liquids production is expected to increase 26% in 2019, while gas production may increase by 14%.
Despite falling gas prices, improving sub-play economics driven by higher liquids yields have strengthened the Montney’s position and much of the play is economic at $2 (Can.)/Mcf.
“Depressed natural gas prices have caused operators to rethink Montney development,” said WoodMac senior analyst Nathan Nemeth.
“Montney specialists have made major headway on improving completion design and are being rewarded with operational performance. Liquids is driving the story,” he said.
Drilling activity during 2010-14 was led by operators with LNG export aspirations. From 2015, activity has been led by operators targeting natural gas liquids, specifically condensate.
Not all areas of the Montney are liquids-rich. The remaining value of the play is estimated to be more than $65 billion (Can.), but Nemeth noted that the value is concentrated in the best areas, with the top five sub-plays accounting for 74%.
At this stage, two sub-plays account for about 50% of the Montney's liquids production: Heritage, in British Columbia, and Kakwa, in Alberta.
“But you also have international players like ConocoPhillips and Murphy, as well as LNG-driven activity from Shell, Petronas, Mitsubishi, and PetroChina.
“The growing liquids production from the Montney, combined with the final investment decision for LNG Canada last year, make the Montney an important play to keep an eye on in the future,” he said.
