欧洲LNG再装载活动淡出视野

中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站5月8日伦敦报道 欧洲液化天然气的再装载（最近夏天一个重要的灵活供应来源）今年已经从视野中消失，因为当前的远期利差意味着套利窗口没有打开。

近年来，欧洲天然气交易市场的位置和深度支撑了再装载活动，其重心更多地是从西北欧采购液化天然气，而非历史上最受青睐的西班牙。

但从2018年底开始的全球供应过剩意味着市场还有其他供应选择。

再装载的可行性取决于许多因素，包括运输的可用性。

通常情况下，亚洲对欧洲的价格溢价为2美元/每百万英热单位或更高，从而鼓励从欧洲终端进行再装载。

亚洲对荷兰TTF的溢价已于2019年大幅下跌，但在过去几周内，7月份已小幅回落至超过1美元/每百万英热单位。

未来几个月，更多美国液化天然气进入市场，意味着不需要在欧洲再装载，即使亚洲价格进一步高于欧洲天然气市场。

但是，美国生产的延迟和其他大西洋盆地供应的任何减少都可能意味着如果亚洲夏季需求强劲，那么欧洲的再加载将不太可能实现复苏。

印度和中东市场在欧洲液化天然气再装载方面处于有利地位，尽管埃及在去年已经从进口国转向出口国。

目前，大西洋地区缺乏液化天然气运输船，从而推高了即期租船费率。

王磊 摘译自 ICIS

原文如下：

European LNG reloads absent but not impossible in summer

European reloads – an important flexible source of supply in recent summers – have disappeared from view this year with current forward spreads meaning the arbitrage window is not open.

Europe’s location and depth of traded gas markets have supported reload activity in recent years, with more of a focus on sourcing volumes from northwest Europe than historically-favoured Spain.

But the global oversupply that kicked in from late 2018 has meant the market has other supply options.

The viability of reloads depends on a number of factors, including the availability of shipping.

Typically, an Asian price premium of $2.00/MMBtu or more to Europe has encouraged reloads from European terminals.

Asia’s premium to the Dutch TTF has collapsed in 2019 but in the last couple of weeks has edged back up to over $1/MMBtu for July.

The arrival of more US LNG to the market in the coming months should mean European reloads are not needed, even if Asian prices rise further above European gas markets.

But delays to US production and any cut in the availability of other Atlantic-basin supply could mean European reloads make an unlikely recovery in the event of strong Asian summer demand.

Indian and Middle East markets are well placed for European reloads, although Egypt has turned from importer to exporter over the last year.

Currently, the lack of LNG carriers in the Atlantic is pushing up prompt charter rates.