壳牌：今年全球液化天然气贸易将增长11%

中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社伦敦报道，荷兰皇家壳牌在周一发布的一份年度液化天然气（LNG）报告中表示，随着新设施增加对欧洲和亚洲的供应，今年全球LNG贸易将增长11%，至3.54亿吨。

全球最大的LNG买家和卖家壳牌表示，去年的LNG贸易量增长了2700万吨，其中中国需求增长了1600万吨。

壳牌预测显示，明年LNG需求将攀升至3.84亿吨，这反映出，随着澳大利亚、美国和俄罗斯的新生产设施正在蓬勃发展, 更多的国家通过建设LNG接收终端成为进口国。

亚洲在市场上占据主导地位，日本仍然是最大的买家。由于中国要求发电站从煤炭转向燃烧更清洁的天然气以帮助减少污染，而需求飙升，在2017年成为第二大需求国。

由于液化出口设施和进口终端的发展不平衡，许多分析师认为，如果不是今年，那么明年，全球市场就会出现供过于求的现象。

但大多数人认为在21世纪20年代中期将出现供应短缺，因为目前还没有足够的液化设施被规划、融资和建造。

这些项目的基础是其经营者提前几年签订的长期供应合同。2014年至2017年，买家签订了较短期限的小批量合约，使得融资难以完成。

不过，壳牌表示，去年签订的合同期限平均翻了一番多，达到13年。

壳牌公司表示：“2018年新的长期液化天然气合同的反弹，可能会重振液化项目的投资。根据目前的需求预测，壳牌仍预计在21世纪20年代中期供应将会收紧。”

壳牌公司表示，2018年LNG现货贸易总量为1400批货物，占全球市场的比例接近30%，而2017年为25%。现货贸易，即为买卖货物双方立即交货，标志着一个更加灵活和成熟的市场。

詹晓晶摘自路透社

原文如下：

Global LNG trade to rise 11 percent this year: Shell

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade will rise 11 percent to 354 million tonnes this year as new facilities increase supplies to Europe and Asia, Royal Dutch Shell said in an annual LNG report on Monday.

Shell, the largest buyer and seller of LNG in the world, said trade rose by 27 million tonnes last year, with Chinese demand growth accounting for 16 million tonnes of those volumes.

Shell’s forecasts, which see LNG demand climbing to 384 million tonnes next year, reflect a burgeoning industry with new production facilities opening in Australia, the United States and Russia and more countries becoming importers by constructing receiving terminals.

Asia dominates the market with Japan remaining the top buyer. China became the second largest in 2017 as demand soared due to a government-mandated push for power stations to switch from coal to cleaner-burning gas to help reduce pollution.

Due to the uneven progress of developing liquefaction-export facilities on the one hand and regasification-import terminals on the other, many analysts see the global market becoming oversupplied if not this year then next year.

But most also see a supply crunch around the mid-2020s because, at the moment, there are not enough liquefaction facilities being planned, financed and built.

Such projects are underpinned by long-term supply contracts struck years in advance by their operators. Between 2014 and 2017 buyers were signing shorter-duration contracts for smaller volumes, making financing difficult to complete.

However, Shell said the duration of contracts signed last year had on average more than doubled to 13 years.

“A rebound in new long-term LNG contracting in 2018 could revive investment in liquefaction projects,” Shell said. “Based on current demand projections, Shell still expects supplies to tighten in mid-2020s.”

Spot trade amounted to 1,400 cargoes in 2018 which was close to 30 percent of the global market compared to 25 percent in 2017, Shell said. Spot trade, the buying and selling of cargoes for immediate delivery, signals a more flexible, mature market.?