中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价12月24日消息 甚至在WTI原油价格跌至每桶50美元以下的最新油价暴跌之前,分析师就曾预计美国页岩的爆炸性增长明年会稍微降温,但也至少要持续到2019年下半年二叠纪输油管道限制有所缓解为止。
美国页岩将继续提高原油产量,但随着WTI价格跌至每桶50美元的重要心理门槛以下,分析师开始计算哪些地区可能已经出现亏损,现货价格低于盈亏平衡点。
可以肯定的是,美国石油产量预计明年将继续增长,但美国基准油价维持在50美元以下或50美元左右的时间越长,增长就越慢。
油价的暴跌可能使更多美国页岩钻探商削减明年的资本支出,其中更多钻探商可能削减地程度更大,因为只有两个半月前,当WTI在70美元以上时,市场担心由于美国对伊朗的制裁导致供应紧缩,很少有人预期油价会如此大幅下跌。
然而,尽管WTI跌破50美元,但一些分析师表示美国页岩的辉煌日子还没有结束。
PVM石油协会分析师Stephen Brennock 说:“简而言之,尽管最近油价暴跌注入了新的不确定因素,但美国页岩的发动机不太可能会脱轨。”
CNBC引Brennock 的研究报告称:“事实是,美国紧缩的石油供应预计在2019年将增产达到100万桶/日,通过这样做,将极大地巩固美国作为世界最大石油生产国的新地位。”
Brennock说:“就目前而言,美国页岩的辉煌日子还远没有结束。”
王磊 摘译自 今日油价
原文如下:
Even before the latest oil price plunge that sent WTI Crude prices to below $50 a barrel, analysts had expected the explosive growth in the U.S. shale patch to cool off a bit next year - at least until the Permian pipeline constraints ease in the latter half of 2019.
U.S. shale is set to continue to raise crude oil production, but as WTI prices dipped to below the psychologically important threshold of $50 a barrel, analysts started to calculate which areas may have already fallen into the red with spot prices lower than breakevens.
To be sure, U.S. oil production is expected to continue to increase next year, but the longer the U.S. benchmark oil price stays below or around $50, the slower the growth will be.
The fresh price plunge could make more U.S. shale drillers cut capital expenditure for next year and more of them may cut deeper, considering that few had anticipated such a steep drop in oil prices just two and a half months ago, when WTI was above $70 when the market feared a supply crunch due to the U.S. sanctions on Iran.
Yet, even in the face of plunge that sent WTI below $50, some analysts say that the glory days for U.S. shale are not over.
“In short, as much as the recent price slump has injected a fresh dose of uncertainty, it is unlikely to derail the U.S. shale engine,” according to Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
“The fact is that U.S. tight oil supply is expected to expand by at least 1 million bpd in 2019. In doing so, it will go a long way to cementing America’s newfound position as the world's biggest oil producer,” CNBC quoted a Wednesday research note by Brennock as saying.
“For now, when it comes to the U.S. shale patch, the glory days are far from over,” said Brennock.