明年原油需求放缓 流动性趋紧 下行风险加大

中国石化新闻网讯 据安迅思伦敦12月21日消息卡特尔及其领导人沙特阿拉伯或许没有10年前的影响力，但2018年的情况表明，它们对全球原油价格仍至关重要。

尽管此后俄罗斯和美国已迎头赶上，但欧佩克产油国仍拥有全球供应的绝大份额。

卡特尔决定从明年1月起，将全球原油日产量削减120万桶，这将有助于2019年上半年市场重新平衡，但事后可能证明这一决定并不充分。

目前，石油正陷入熊市，投资者担心美国创纪录的石油产量(目前已超过每日1100万桶)，以及动荡不安的燃料市场可能拖累需求。

美国石油仍是2019年的不确定因素，因为它没有签署任何供应协议。

事实证明，与大型石油公司相比，美国页岩油钻探企业对价格波动的反应更为敏感，但它们的总体反应极其难以衡量，因为它们没有协调供应决策。

钻井平台生产率的数据会有一到两个月的滞后，通常会在接下来的6到12个月里进行大幅修正。

同样，消费对价格变化的反应也有6到18个月的滞后。等到需求破坏变得明显时，已经太迟了，价格也会上涨太多。

油价下跌可能会刺激需求，但欧佩克的努力对全球经济影响不大。

吴慧丹 摘译自 ICIS

原文如下：

Crude oil demand to slow on tighter liquidity, higher risk of down cycle

The cartel and its leader Saudi Arabia may not have the influence they had a decade ago, but 2018 has shown, if anything, that they remained critically important to global crude prices.

OPEC producers still own an enormous part of global supply, even if Russia and the US have since caught up.

The cartel’s decision to start cutting global supply by 1.2m bbl/day from January will help the market re-balance in the first half of 2019, but it might prove insufficient afterwards.

At present, oil is stuck in a bear market and investors are concerned that record US production, now in excess of 11m bbl/day, and a skittish fuel market may drag on demand.

US oil remains the wild card in 2019, being no party to any supply agreement.

US shale drillers have proved more responsive to price swings than big oil, but their aggregate response is extremely difficult to gauge since they do not coordinate their supply decisions.

Data on rig productivity is produced with a one-two month lag, and often followed by huge revisions in the next six or 12 months.

Likewise, consumption responds to changes in price with a six-to-18-month lag. By the time demand destruction becomes visible, it is too late and prices will have risen too much.

Lower oil prices are likely to boost demand, but OPEC’s efforts will have little bearing on the global economy.