原油价格陷入螺旋式下跌

中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社纽约12月21日消息，尽管有关欧佩克减产和页岩油产量飙升的说法不绝于耳，但石油最大的问题是对经济的恐慌，其中相关分析证明了这一点。

在2014年的上一次油价暴跌期间，普氏500指数和布伦特原油走势相反。石油价格的下跌未能证明对美国股市造成太大拖累，反之亦然，两种资产之间的强负相关系数为0.65。

这种情况在大宗商品当前暴跌期间发生了变化。布伦特原油和普氏指数走势一致：两者相关系数转为正值并进一步增强至强劲的0.75。

沃尔夫研究公司分析师萨姆?马戈林周四在一份报告中写道：“欧佩克无法解决这一困境。”解决方案只取决于围绕全球增长的市场信心。”

尽管沃尔夫在认为2019年将出现“建设性”的迹象，但只有这些迹象转向更广泛的情绪，他们才会转化到石油。

曹海斌 摘译自 彭博社

原文如下：

Crude prices locked in a downward spiral

For all the talk of OPEC supply cuts and surging shale production, oil’s biggest problem is panic over the economy -- and the correlations show it.

During the last oil price crash in 2014, the S&P 500 Index and Brent crude moved in opposite directions. Oil’s fall failed to prove much of a drag on U.S. equities and vice-versa, as represented by a strong negative correlation coefficient of .65 between the two assets.

That’s changed during the commodity’s current collapse. Brent and the S&P are moving in tandem: The correlation has turned positive and strengthened to a robust .75.

“There’s nothing OPEC can do about that predicament," Sam Margolin, a Wolfe Research LLC analyst, wrote in a note Thursday. “The solution lies only in market confidence around global growth."

While Wolfe sees “constructive" signs for 2019, they’ll only translate to oil “whenever they translate across broader sentiment."