天然气储能系统进入采暖季节远低于平均水平

中国石化新闻网讯 据普氏能源资讯丹佛12月14日消息 太平洋天然气和电力存储系统的库存在进入供暖季节的历史最低水平，这可能导致今年冬天价格上涨。

进入冬季，存储库存为145亿立方英尺，比2017年减少了66亿立方英尺，比五年平均水平低65亿立方英尺。尽管库存量如此低迷，但仍足以抵御正常或比平均温度更低的冬季。然而，今年冬季到目前为止持续的高需求可能会导致今年冬季后期储存严重不足，并对冬季价格的平衡构成强大的上行压力。

据全球普氏能源资讯的数据显示，到目前为止系统需求平均为每日26.3亿立方英尺，这是自2013年以来该季节的最高水平。由于前期需求的增加，导致从系统储存中提取了25.4亿立方英尺，这也是自2013年以来最大的季节性存储撤离。

由于当前库存为120亿立方英尺，且与2013/2014年冬季的撤离模式相同，库存将再减少103亿立方英尺，这将使季度末库存减少逾50亿立方英尺，处于历史最低水平。极地涡旋冬季过后，需求和储存活动都不太可能出现。然而，它确实描绘了一幅令人担忧的库存状况。以过去两个冬季为例，从现在到本季度末，库存量从51亿立方英尺到81亿立方英尺不等。如果今年出现低库存或高库存的情况，那么库存将以69亿立方英尺或39亿立方英尺的高位结束本季度，这两个高位都将是系统库存的10年低点。

吴慧丹 摘译自 普氏能源资讯

原文如下：

Inventories on the Pacific Gas & Electric storage system entered the heating season at historically low levels, which could likely lead to upward pressure on prices this winter.

Entering the winter, PG&E storage inventories were 145 Bcf, which was 66 Bcf below 2017 and 65 Bcf below the five-year average. Despite inventories being so depressed, stockpiles still appeared sufficient to withstand a normal or colder-than-average winter. However, sustained high demand so far this winter may lead to steep storage deficits later this winter and strong upward pressure on PG&E balance of winter prices.

PG&E on-system demand has averaged 2.63 Bcf/d winter to date, the strongest level this early in the season since 2013, according to data from S&P Global Platts Analytics. The elevated early season demand has caused PG&E to pull a total of 25.4 Bcf from storage, which is also the largest early season storage withdrawal since 2013.

With current inventories at 120 Bcf and following along the same withdrawal patterns as the winter of 2013/2014, storage inventories stand to lose another 103 Bcf, which would place season-ending inventories at their lowest levels in history by more than 50 Bcf. The likelihood of both demand and storage activity following the polar vortex winter exactly is unlikely; however, it does paint a concerning picture for inventory levels exiting the winter. Using the last two winters as guides, storage withdrawals from now until the end of the season ranged from 51 Bcf to 81 Bcf. If either the low or high case were to happen this year, storage inventories would exit the season at a high of 69 Bcf or 39 Bcf, both of which would be a 10-year low for PG&E storage.