中国石化新闻网讯 据《石油世界》2018年12月10日首尔报道,高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示,欧佩克+联盟将如何实施减产协议存在不确定性,这可能会抑制油价上涨。
高盛集团说,要想实现任何持续反弹,都需要有库存下降和正在实施削减的证据。
高盛集团分析师达米安和杰弗里在12月7日发布的一份报告中说:“需要从全球石油市场今年下半年惊人的大量盈余以及缺乏实施削减的清晰图片两方面获得物理证据。”
由于市场预期高于预期的产量限制措施将缓解供应过剩,全球基准布伦特原油价格周五在伦敦飙升了6%,至每桶63美元上方。不过,由于对需求增长放缓的担忧、对特朗普要求油价下跌的压力越来越大以及美国页岩油产量可能增加的担忧困扰着投资者,油价上涨很快会失去动力,其最初涨幅减半。
摩根士丹利表示,虽然欧佩克与俄罗斯等合作伙伴达成的协议大幅降低了供应过剩的可能性,油价可能会继续上涨,但未来几个季度原油价格不太可能再次达到10月初创下的4年高点。摩根士丹利分析师Martijn Rats预计,到2019年第二季,布伦特原油价格将在每桶67.50美元,比该行此前的预估每桶低了10美元。
李峻 编译自 石油世界
原文如下:
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warn oil uncertainty to persist
Oil's gains risk being quelled by uncertainty over how the OPEC+ coalition will implement its deal to cut output, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.
While producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia defied market expectations as well as U.S. President Donald Trump late last week to pledge 1.2 million barrels a day of curbs, the lack of specific country allocations and exemptions for Iran, Venezuela and Libya cloud the market outlook, Goldman said in a report. For any sustained rally, a drop in stockpiles and evidence of the cuts being implemented are needed, it said.
“The need for this physical evidence emanates from both the surprisingly large surplus of the global oil market in the second half of 2018 as well the absence of a clear picture on the implementation of the cuts,” Goldman analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie wrote in a Dec. 7 report.
Global benchmark Brent crude surged as much as 6 percent to trade above $63 a barrel in London on Friday on hopes that the higher-than-expected output curbs will drain the glut in supplies. Still, the rally quickly lost steam and halved its initial gain as the specter of slowing demand growth, fears of mounting pressure from Trump to lower prices and a potential increase in U.S. shale output haunted investors.
While prices can continue to rise as the pact between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners such as Russia significantly decreases the possibility of a glut, crude's four-year high in early October is unlikely to be reached again in coming quarters, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Martijn Rats sees Brent reaching $67.50 a barrel by the second quarter of 2019, $10 lower than the bank's previous estimate.