中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社11月5日报道称,自2014/15年度经济低迷以来,油价的回升与2008/09和1997/98年度经济下滑后的上行调整非常相似,这可能为下一步的情况提供线索。
石油市场具有强烈的周期性,虽然没有两个周期相同,但它们往往表现出相似的特征。
现货价格和日历差价表现出与市场密切相关的周期性波动,在供应不足和供应过剩时期交替互现。
布伦特原油六个月的日历价差似乎在2018年4月达到了一个重要的周期性峰值,高于2015年1月的后期低谷,之后呈下降趋势。
现货价格可能在2018年10月初达到类似的高点。尽管现在下结论还为时尚早,但大多数对冲基金和其他基金经理近几周都清算了大部分看涨头寸。
在最近的经济复苏中,布伦特原油的日历价差从低谷上升了39个月,达到了第一个主要峰值,与1998 - 2000年(21个月)和2009 - 2011年(33个月)的复苏大致相当。
现货价格已连续33个月从低点上涨至10月份的高点,这与1998 - 2000年(22个月)和2008 - 2011年(28个月)的复苏大致相当。
油价,利差以及生产者和消费者的反应表明,市场已经过了2014/15年度暴跌之后的首个主要周期性高峰。
徐蕾 摘译自 路透社
原文如下:
Oil market passes cyclical peak
The recovery in oil prices since the downturn of 2014/15 looks a lot like the upward adjustments that followed the slumps of 2008/09 and 1997/98, which could provide clues about what happens next.
The oil market is strongly cyclical, and although no two cycles are the same, they often show similar characteristics.
Spot prices and calendar spreads exhibit cyclical movements that correlate closely with the market, alternating between periods of under- and over-supply.
Brent’s six-month calendar spread seems to have reached a major cyclical peak in April 2018, up from a post-slump trough in January 2015, before trending downwards.
Spot prices may have reached a similar peak in early October 2018. Although it is too early to be certain, most hedge funds and other money managers have liquidated a large share of their bullish positions in recent weeks.
In the recent recovery, Brent calendar spreads rose for 39 months from trough to the first major peak, which is roughly comparable with recoveries in 1998-2000 (21 months) and 2009-2011 (33 months).
Spot prices have risen for 33 months from trough to their peak in October, which is also broadly comparable with recoveries in 1998-2000 (22 months) and 2008-2011 (28 months).
Oil prices, spreads and the reactions of producers and consumers suggest the market has passed the first major cyclical peak after the slump of 2014/15.