中国石化新闻网讯 据道琼斯12月14日消息,伯恩斯坦研究公司称,如果已同意减产的产油国能够履行其承诺,那么油价在2017年将冲击60美元/桶,2018年将冲击80美元/桶。该公司称:“能否履行承诺仍然是一个主要的不确定因素,只有在有迹象显示生产国遵守承诺的情况下,市场才会消化上述减产因素。我们预计减产协议至少能兑现70%,沙特、海湾国家和俄罗斯的日产量减少幅度合计达110万桶。”该公司补充道,鉴于从2017年初开始市场供应将减少,如果欧佩克和非欧佩克产油国达成的减产协议在当年依然有效,那么2017年石油库存将下降超过4亿桶。
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Brent Could Hit $60 in 2017 but Only if Producers Don't Cheat
[Dow Jones] If oil producers who have agreed to cut their production can fulfill their pledges, oil prices could hit $60 a barrel in 2017 and $80 in 2018, says Bernstein Research. "Compliance remains one of the key uncertainties and markets will only price in these cuts when there is evidence that producers are abiding by commitments. We expect at least 70% compliance, with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Russia representing 1.1 million barrels a day of the total agreed cuts," the firm says. It adds given undersupply in the market from the start of 2017 onwards, there could be over 400 million barrels of inventory draws in 2017 if agreed OPEC and non-OPEC cuts remain in force for the year.