据彭博社7月20日莫斯科报道,根据高盛集团的预测数据,由于俄罗斯石油生产商可以依靠低成本油田运作而无视当前油价的暴跌,俄罗斯石油产量或将在2018年底打破30年前前苏联时代创下的纪录。
高盛分析师在上周访问了俄罗斯几家大型石油公司后,于周二撰写研究报告称,俄石油产量将在未来3年内,从59万桶/天攀升至1165万桶/天。根据英国石油公司的数据,这将超过1987年苏联时期1142万桶/天的记录。
由Geydar Mamedov领衔的高盛分析师们称,“我们仍然对俄罗斯石油生产业持乐观态度。在当前油价的水平,俄罗斯是全球为数不多的,能够维持提产计划与红利获取的石油大国之一”。
俄罗斯,作为全球头号能源出口国,在OPEC未能采取计划来改善全球供应过剩局面后,于4月暗示其将提振产量与出口。高盛表示,俄油作为该国最大的石油生产商,将有可能在东西伯利亚新油田投产与现有业务产能复苏的双重作用下,成为当前到2018年这段时间内国内石油增产的领头羊。
同时报告称,若诺瓦泰克公司、鞑靼石油公司与俄油的提产野心更为强烈的话,石油产量可能达到更高的水平。
章盈盈 编译
原文如下:
Goldman sees Russian oil output topping Soviet record by 2018
7/20/2016
MOSCOW (Bloomberg) -- Russian oil output will exceed the former Soviet record set almost 30 years ago by the end of 2018 as low-cost fields allow producers to defy the slump in prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group.
Production will climb by 590,000 bpd over the next three years to 11.65 MMbpd, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in research note dated Tuesday after visiting some of Russia’s major oil companies last week. That would exceed the Soviet record of 11.42 MMbpd in 1987, according to BP Plc data.
“We remain positive on Russian oil industry production,” Goldman analysts led by Geydar Mamedov said. “At current oil prices, Russian oils are among the few global majors that can maintain their growth plans and dividends.”
Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, signaled in April it would boost oil production and shipments after OPEC failed to adopt a plan to ease a supply glut. Rosneft PJSC will likely lead growth over the period through 2018 as the country’s biggest producer starts new fields in East Siberia and revives output at existing operations, Goldman said.
Production could be even higher should Novatek OJSC, Tatneft and Rosneft ramp up output more aggressively, according to the note.