据道琼斯12月23日消息,花旗分析师Tim Evans称,欧佩克抢占市场份额的决定仍是原油供应持续过剩以及油价下跌的主要原因。他还称,尽管部分非欧佩克成员的产量放缓,但一旦伊朗制裁全面取消,进入市场的伊朗石油增量将令市场在2016年年底前仍供应过剩。他称:“如果欧佩克产量符合我们的基本预期,最高升至3,200万桶/天,那么我们也许已经看到全球原油供应过剩情况在2015年第二季度达到顶峰,但即便供应过剩的情形有所缓解,石油库存仍会进一步累积。”
唐绍红摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Onset of Iranian Crude Means Oil Surplus Will Stay for 2016
[Dow Jones] OPEC's decision to compete for market share remains a key driver of the ongoing oil surplus and declining prices, says Tim Evans, a Citi analyst. He adds that, despite a slowdown of some production by non-OPEC players, the addition of Iranian oil back to the market--once sanctions are fully lifted--will keep the market in surplus through 2016. "If OPEC production sticks to our base scenario and tops out at 32 million barrels per day, we may have seen peak glut in second quarter in 2015, but even a smaller surplus would still mean a further accumulation of stocks," he says.