据道琼斯11月17日消息,凯投宏观表示,全球石油供应充裕意味着石油价格不再会计入太多风险溢价,但是石油供应中断的概率仍然很高,同时全球缺乏剩余石油能力,这些都意味着如果发生中东地区的石油供应中断,那么油价可能会大幅上涨。凯投宏观表示中东地区的风险包括伊朗核协议落空以及伊拉克安全形势恶化等。
庞晓华摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
Risks to Middle East Oil Supplies Remain High
Ample global supply of oil means prices are no longer incorporating much of a risk premium, but the potential for disruption is still high and lack of spare capacity means prices could spike in the event of any interruption to supply from the Middle East, says Capital Economics. It notes risks in the region include the potential that the Iran nuclear deal falls through and a worsening security situation in Iraq.