据道琼斯10月13日消息,国际能源署(IEA)周二警告称,明年石油市场或仍将维持供应过剩,因为伊朗石油意外回归市场,而且石油需求增长放缓。
代表全球部分最大石油消费国的IEA的评估没有欧佩克那么乐观。欧佩克周一表示,在美国产量下降的情况下,明年石油市场将开始重新平衡。
IEA在其备受关注的月度石油市场报告中将明年的石油需求增幅预期较9月份的上次预期下调20万桶/天。IEA目前预计,2016年全球石油消费量增加120万桶/天,而2015年石油消费将增长180万桶/天,创五年高点。
IEA表示:“预计中的明年石油需求增速放缓以及国际制裁取消后伊朗新增石油供应或将令2016年全球石油市场仍然维持供应过剩。”
IEA称,一旦明年初国际制裁解除,伊朗的石油日产量可能从目前的290万桶增至360万桶。
庞晓华摘译自道琼斯
原文如下:
IEA Sees Oil Market Remaining Oversupplied Next Year
By Benoit Faucon
A top energy watchdog Tuesday warned that oil markets would likely remain oversupplied next year, as oil demand growth slows down amid an expected return of Iranian oil.
The assessment by the International Energy Agency--which represents some of the world's largest oil consumers--is somewhat less upbeat than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries which Monday said oil markets would start to rebalance themselves next year amid declining U.S. production.
In its closely-watched monthly oil market report, the IEA cut its forecast for oil demand growth for next year by about 200,000 barrels a day compared to its previous assessment in September. It now sees world oil consumption rising by 1.2 million barrels a day in 2016, compared to a five-year-high growth of 1.8 million barrels a day in 2015.
"A projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels--should international sanctions be eased--are likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016," the agency said.
The IEA said Iran's production could ramp up towards 3.6 million barrels a day from 2.9 million barrels a day currently once international sanctions are terminated early next year.